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Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev prediction
Lightweight · Volkanovski vs Evloev · 24 Oct 2026
Aliev is 6 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (637 of 1,058 fights).
Aliev comes in on a 4-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 57% of the time (367 of 639 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev.
| UFC 12-2 (1 draw/NC) | UFC record | UFC 4-0 |
| 24-3-1 | Pro record | 12-0 |
| KGD | Nickname | Tajik Eagle |
| 5' 10" | Height | 5' 10" |
| 72" | Reach | 72" |
| Switch | Stance | Orthodox |
| 32 | Age | 25 |
| 155 lbs. | Weight | 155 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Tajikistan |
| Cambria, Wisconsin, United States | Born in | Dushanbe, Tajikistan |
| Coconut Creek, Florida, United States | Fights out of | Dushanbe, Tajikistan |
| American Top Team | Camp | — |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Grant Dawson15 UFC fights · 528 landed
Nurullo Aliev4 UFC fights · 118 landed
Significant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.19 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Grant Dawson (left) vs Nurullo Aliev (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
5' 10" switch submission grappler campaigning at Lightweight. 12 UFC wins — 2 KO/TKO, 5 submission, 5 decision.
5' 10" orthodox grappling-led all-rounder campaigning at Lightweight. 4 UFC wins — 4 decision.