Allen vs Duncan prediction: Allen won, we had Allen at 55%

Red corner BrendanAllen“All In”Kill Cliff FC · Born in Beaufort, South Carolina, United States · Fights out of Delray Beach, Florida, United States

VSSettled

Blue corner Christian LeroyDuncanRange Martial Arts Academy · Born in Gloucester, England · Fights out of Gloucester, England

Middleweight5 rounds10 Oct 2026At the time: #4 Middleweight vs #10 · rankings of 6 October 2026

The story going in

Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
Comes in on a 5-fight win streak.
Has finished 9 of 15 UFC wins.
Has finished 5 of 8 UFC wins.

28-7

Record

15-3

−1 yr30

Age

31

6' 2"

Height

6' 2"

75″

Reach

+4″79″

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

+919

UFC bouts

10

9/1560% of wins

Finishes

+2%5/862% of wins

Kill Cliff FC

Gym

Range Martial Arts Academy

Beaufort, South Carolina, United States

Born in

Gloucester, England

Delray Beach, Florida, United States

Fights out of

Gloucester, England

Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call

Brendan Allen

54.9% confidentTOSS-UP

Method calledDEC 41%

Vs the market+3.2pp

Market had our pick at52%

The fight

Brendan Allen

WIN✗

How it endedSUB

Round5 of 5

Clock2:46

BonusPOTN

Called it We called Brendan Allen at 54.9% and Brendan Allen won. The method call missed.

Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

By the numbers

Five-round fights
Duncan’s first five-round fight; Allen has 3 five-rounders behind them. A fighter in a first five-rounder against a more experienced opponent wins 40% of the time (120 of 297 fights).
How we know →
Win streaks
Duncan comes in on a 5-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 4 or 5 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 58% of the time (367 of 638 fights).
How we know →

History leans Duncan on 1 of these; our model picked Allen.

Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

5 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action

Brendan Allen15 sig landed

Christian Leroy Duncan24 sig landed

15 of 22

Sig.
strikes

24 of 39

1 of 4

Take-
downs

0 of 0

1:31

Control

1:54

0

Sub
attempts

0

Distance 5Clinch 10Ground 0

Where it
happened

Distance 17Clinch 7Ground 0

Round 25:00 of action1 sub attempt

Brendan Allen10 sig landed

Christian Leroy Duncan14 sig landed

10 of 24

Sig.
strikes

14 of 27

1 of 2

Take-
downs

0 of 0

2:49

Control

0:00

1

Sub
attempts

0

Distance 8Clinch 1Ground 1

Where it
happened

Distance 13Clinch 1Ground 0

Round 35:00 of action

Brendan Allen6 sig landed

Christian Leroy Duncan6 sig landed

6 of 6

Sig.
strikes

6 of 6

1 of 3

Take-
downs

0 of 0

2:57

Control

1:57

0

Sub
attempts

0

Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 6

Where it
happened

Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 6

Round 45:00 of action

Brendan Allen17 sig landed

Christian Leroy Duncan46 sig landed

17 of 43

Sig.
strikes

46 of 89

0 of 0

Take-
downs

0 of 0

0:00

Control

0:00

0

Sub
attempts

0

Distance 16Clinch 1Ground 0

Where it
happened

Distance 45Clinch 1Ground 0

Round 52:46 of action1 sub attemptEnded 2:46

Brendan Allen3 sig landed

Christian Leroy Duncan16 sig landed

3 of 12

Sig.
strikes

16 of 28

1 of 2

Take-
downs

0 of 0

1:22

Control

0:00

1

Sub
attempts

0

Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 0

Where it
happened

Distance 12Clinch 1Ground 3

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Brendan Allen

Round

5

Clock

2:46

Method

SUB

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Brendan Allen

1.52 / 15m

TAKEDOWNS

0.43 / 15m

3.71 / 15m

ATTEMPTS

2.15 / 15m

41%

ACCURACY

20%

1.10 / 15m

SUB ATT

0.00 / 15m

Christian Leroy Duncan

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.86 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Middleweight

The market story

What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Brendan AllenChristian Leroy DuncanPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)

Brendan Allen's implied chance drifted down from 57% to 52% (−6.0pp) over this window.

Our published call had Brendan Allen at 54.9%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 51.5% — our number sat 3.4pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers

Series	Open	Low	High	Last capture	Move
Brendan Allen — sportsbook consensus	56.7%	51.7%	57.1%	51.7%	−5.0pp
Christian Leroy Duncan — sportsbook consensus	43.3%	42.9%	48.3%	48.3%	+5.0pp
Brendan Allen — Polymarket	57.5%	51.5%	62.0%	51.5%	−6.0pp
Christian Leroy Duncan — Polymarket	42.5%	38.0%	48.5%	48.5%	+6.0pp

Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,193 snapshots on file · window Oct 02 17:11–Oct 10 23:51Z · last capture Oct 10, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.