Round 1Ended 1:32
4 of 13
Sig.
strikes
strikes
11 of 17
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 2
0:03
Control
0:29
Distance 3Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 6Clinch 1Ground 4
VSSettled
The story going in
- Unbeaten — 3-0 in the UFC.
- Every one of Smith’s 3 UFC wins came inside the distance.
8-3
Record
13-0
−1 yr29
Age
30
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
+1″73″
Reach
72″
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
W4R Training Center
Gym
Ranger 47
Conroe, Texashometown, per Sherdog
From
Muskogee, Oklahomahometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Jacobe Smith
89.1% confident
The fight
Jacobe Smith
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
UFC debut
Whitehead’s UFC debut, against a fighter with 3 UFC fights. Debutants facing an opponent with 1 to 3 UFC fights win 42% of the time (413 of 976 fights).
Win streaks
Smith comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (434 of 771 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Jacobe Smith
Round
1
Clock
1:32
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Bruce Whitehead
0.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
7.92 / 15m
n/a
ATTEMPTS
9.32 / 15m
n/a
ACCURACY
85%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m
50%
TD DEFENCE
100%
Jacobe Smith
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.27 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Welterweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Bruce WhiteheadJacobe SmithPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Jacobe Smith's implied chance moved up from 50% to 90% (+39.5pp).
This series stops at Oct 03 21:21Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Jacobe Smith at 89.1%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 89.5% — our number sat 0.4pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Whitehead — sportsbook consensus | 13.7% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 10.9% | −2.8pp |
| Jacobe Smith — sportsbook consensus | 86.3% | 86.3% | 89.1% | 89.1% | +2.8pp |
| Bruce Whitehead — Polymarket | 50.0% | 10.5% | 50.0% | 10.5% | −39.5pp |
| Jacobe Smith — Polymarket | 50.0% | 50.0% | 89.5% | 89.5% | +39.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 573 snapshots on file · window Sep 29 22:11–Oct 03 21:11Z · last capture Oct 03, 21:11Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.