Round 1⚡ 1 KD Bellato
26 of 33
Sig.
strikes
strikes
10 of 16
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
1:38
Control
2:22
0
Knock-
downs
downs
1
Distance 8Clinch 18Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 3Clinch 7Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- 5 UFC bouts deep — 4 more than Edwards.
- Carries 95 points more takedown defence than Edwards.
9-5
Record
13-4-1
−3 yr27
Age
30
+2″6' 5"
Height
6' 3"
+1″78″
Reach
77″
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
1
UFC bouts
+45
Jackson-Wink MMA
Gym
KO Squad MMA
Albuquerque, New Mexicohometown, per Sherdog
From
Sorocaba, Sao Paulohometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Rodolfo Bellato
69.3% confidentMED
The fight
Christian Edwards
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Edwards is 2 years younger. With an age gap of 2 to 3 years, the younger fighter wins 57% of UFC fights (1,249 of 2,205 fights).
History leans Edwards on 1 of these; our model picked Bellato.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
26 of 48
Sig.
strikes
strikes
18 of 36
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
1:37
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 21Clinch 5Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 13Clinch 5Ground 0
Round 3⚡ 1 KD EdwardsEnded 1:47
7 of 13
Sig.
strikes
strikes
2 of 5
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
1:04
Control
0:13
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 4
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 1Clinch 1Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Christian Edwards
Round
3
Clock
1:47
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Blake Grice.
Takedowns
Takedowns
Rodolfo Bellato
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
FightIQ read
Takedowns in the mix
1.17 landed per 15 minutes — −1.15 on the field average — a real part of the arsenal, not the whole of it.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS37
1.17 / 15m−1.15 vs field
ATTEMPTS37
3.34 / 15m−2.16 vs field
ACCURACY37
35%−9pp vs field
SUB ATT17
0.20 / 15m−1.40 vs field
TD DEFENCE84
95%+32pp vs field
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Ranked in Light Heavyweight
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Christian Edwards↑ +5.7pp
open 31.2%close 36.9%
Rodolfo Bellato↓ −5.7pp
open 68.8%close 63.1%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
Christian Edwards opened at 31.2% and closed at 36.9% (+5.7pp), with Rodolfo Bellato moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Our published call had Rodolfo Bellato at 69.3%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 63.1% — our number sat 6.2pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Edwards | 208 | 158 | 31.2% | 36.9% | +5.7pp |
| Rodolfo Bellato | -250 | -196 | 68.8% | 63.1% | −5.7pp |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-10-11. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.