Song Yadong is 12-4-1 across 17 UFC appearances and has alternated results over his last five, beating Chris Gutierrez, losing to Petr Yan, beating Henry Cejudo, losing to Sean O'Malley and then submitting Deiveson Figueiredo in the second round in May. Umar Nurmagomedov is 8-1 in nine UFC fights and every one of his last five went to the judges, including a five-round unanimous-decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili in the January 2025 bantamweight title bout. Both men carry a recent win over Figueiredo, Song's by submission and Nurmagomedov's on the cards. The model has Nurmagomedov LOCK.
The read
LOCK is the top tier and it is unusual to see it on a five-rounder, where the extra 10 minutes normally widen the range of outcomes rather than narrow it. Nurmagomedov's path is the one his record already describes: win the exchanges, hold position and take the scorecards, which is how all five of his most recent UFC fights were decided. Song's path is the fight he had in May, when he found the finish instead of the decision, and he needs the scramble rather than the long, managed round. The tell is that the model still calls decision the likeliest method, so it reads this as a fight Nurmagomedov wins across 25 minutes rather than takes away early.
What decides it
- Nurmagomedov's decision-heavy control against Song's need for a scramble
- Song is on a quick turnaround from a May finish; Nurmagomedov last fought in January
- Song's path is the finish, and he showed one against Figueiredo three months ago
- Bantamweight five-rounder, a pacing fight, decision the most likely method
- LOCK tier, the model's strongest read on the card