Aoriqileng is 4-5 through 10 UFC fights, a run that swings between a first-round KO of Cody Gibson last October and a second-round KO loss to Cody Haddon in May. Kai Asakura is 1-2 in the UFC, both losses by submission, to Alexandre Pantoja in a flyweight title bout and to Tim Elliott, with a first-round KO of Cameron Smotherman in May at bantamweight. The model leans Asakura without much conviction behind it.
The read
Both men fought on the same May card and walked off it going opposite directions, and that is most of what the model is working with. Asakura's path is the Smotherman fight repeated, a fast finish before anything settles. Aoriqileng's path is the grappling that ended both of Asakura's UFC losses, or the volume to take three rounds to the judges. Decision is the single likeliest outcome, though five of the eight most recent results between them ended inside the distance.
What decides it
- Asakura's one-round finishing speed against a submission record that has cost him twice
- Both fought May 30, Asakura winning inside a round and Aoriqileng stopped in the second
- Aoriqileng's path is the ground, where both of Asakura's UFC losses ended
- Bantamweight three-rounder, with pace deciding whether it reaches the cards
- A lean rather than a strong read, on a three-fight UFC sample for Asakura