Manuel Torres is 5-1 in the UFC, and every one of his last five appearances ended in the first round, four of them in his favor. Rafael Fiziev is 7-5 through 12 UFC fights and has gone 1-4 across his last five, one of those losses by knockout and one a stoppage when he hurt his knee, with a gap of nearly 18 months in the middle of that run. The two share an opponent: Ignacio Bahamondes knocked Torres out in the first round in 2024 and lost a decision to Fiziev in June 2025. The model has a modest lean to Torres in a five-round headliner.
The read
This is close to even, and the reason sits in how quickly Torres' fights resolve. His path is the one he has taken in every recent outing, landing something decisive before the fight settles into a rhythm. Fiziev's path is the opposite, dragging Torres past the opening five minutes, which none of Torres' six UFC fights has reached, and that is also where Fiziev's decision win over Bahamondes came from. The model picks a knockout as the likeliest ending even with five rounds available, a sign it is weighting the pace of Torres' recent fights over the extra time.
What decides it
- Torres' first-round habit against Fiziev's comfort at the distance
- Fiziev is 1-4 in his last five with one knockout loss, one injury stoppage and a long layoff inside that run
- Fiziev's path is surviving the opening round and making it a long night
- Lightweight scheduled for five rounds, a distance Torres has never needed in the UFC
- A modest lean to Torres, one of the closer calls on the card