Abus Magomedov is 4-3 in the UFC across seven fights, with three wins since May 2024 and a second-round submission loss to Joe Pyfer last October as his most recent outing. Michal Oleksiejczuk is the more experienced hand at 10-7 over 18 appearances, and he arrives on three straight wins that included first-round knockouts of Sedriques Dumas and Gerald Meerschaert. Two of Magomedov's recent wins came on the cards. The model splits this almost down the middle and lands on Magomedov at 52.2%.
The read
This one is close to even, and both records explain why. Oleksiejczuk's route is the one he took twice in 2025, landing heavy and ending it inside a round. Magomedov's route is the one his 2024 and 2025 wins describe, getting through the opening exchanges and taking the later rounds to the judges. The tell is that the model still sits a fraction on Magomedov's side while Oleksiejczuk holds the better recent results, which points to it weighing how each man has lost more than how Oleksiejczuk has been winning.
What decides it
- A first-round finisher against a fighter who has been winning on the cards
- Oleksiejczuk carries the better recent form with three straight wins
- Oleksiejczuk's path is a stoppage early, as he managed twice in 2025
- Middleweight three-rounder, and the model's method lean is a decision
- Close to even, one of the tightest reads on the card