Asu Almabayev is 6-1 through seven UFC fights, with three unanimous decisions and a third-round submission of Alex Perez among his last five, and one loss, a third-round knockout by Manel Kape. Charles Johnson has 14 UFC fights and an 8-6 record, and he has fought three times since August. Perez is the common thread: Almabayev submitted him in November, and Perez knocked Johnson out in the first round in January. The model likes Almabayev and expects the cards.
The read
That common opponent is the cleanest piece of evidence on the card, and it points one way. Almabayev's read is built on the decisions, three of them in his last five, plus the grappling that finished Perez in the third. Johnson's path is the one that produced his knockout of Lone'er Kavanagh, catching Almabayev the way Kape did. Johnson's activity is the argument against the model's number, three fights in 10 months against a seven-month gap for Almabayev since November.
What decides it
- Almabayev's decision-and-grappling pattern against Johnson's power
- Johnson has fought three times since August; Almabayev last fought in November
- Johnson's path is the knockout, which he has one of in his last five
- Flyweight over three rounds, and the model calls the scorecards
- A firm lean to Almabayev, the second-strongest number on the card