Both Jefferson Nascimento and Tahir Abdullayev make their UFC debuts, so there is no octagon form on either man to weigh. The model leans to Abdullayev at 69.3% with KO/TKO the likeliest method.
The read
With no UFC fights on either side, the read should be treated as thin. Abdullayev's path is the one the method read implies, ending it before inexperience at this level becomes the story. Nascimento's path is the mirror image. Fights where both men are unmeasured in the octagon are where the model has the least to work with, and this is one of them.
What decides it
- Two UFC debutants, so the matchup read has no octagon evidence behind it
- Neither man measured at this level, which leaves trajectory and activity out of the picture
- Nascimento's path is simply that his form travels as well as Abdullayev's
- Three-round bout, with KO/TKO the likeliest method
- A read on no UFC form, and it should be taken that way