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FightIQ · The Lab · Rematches

Does the first fight's winner win the UFC rematch?

Yes: the winner of the previous meeting has won 59.8% of UFC rematches.

Headline: 59.8% of 194 fights, 95% range 52.8% to 66.4% · counted from 8,760 UFC fights with a winner, 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026
Does the first fight's winner win the UFC rematch? How often the winner of the last meeting won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the winner of the last meeting won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 59.8% of 194 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useWinner of the last meeting: 59.8% of 194 fights (95% range 52.8 to 66.4%)Winner of the last meeting194 fights59.8%By how the last meeting endedLast meeting was a finish: 56.2% of 105 fights (95% range 46.6 to 65.3%)Last meeting was a finish105 fights56.2%Last meeting went another way: 64.0% of 89 fights (95% range 53.7 to 73.2%)Last meeting went another way89 fights64.0%
Does the first fight's winner win the UFC rematch? How often the winner of the last meeting won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the winner of the last meeting won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 59.8% of 194 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useWinner of the last meeting: 59.8% of 194 fights (95% range 52.8 to 66.4%)Winner of the last meeting194 fights59.8%By how the last meeting endedLast meeting was a finish: 56.2% of 105 fights (95% range 46.6 to 65.3%)Last meeting was a finish105 fights56.2%Last meeting went another way: 64.0% of 89 fights (95% range 53.7 to 73.2%)Last meeting went another way89 fights64.0%
How often the winner of the last meeting won, with a 95% range on every row. filled: clear of the dashed linehollow: could be chanceRows resting on fewer than 30 fights are not drawn.

What this means for a fight

A rematch usually goes the same way as the first fight. The winner has already shown they can solve this opponent, and the loser has to change something to turn it round.

Correlation is not causation. Rematches are booked for a reason, often a close or controversial first fight, so they are not a random sample of matchups.

The latest fights in the headline row

The most recent UFC fights counted in the headline row (the winner of the last meeting).

The numbers

The rows the fight-page cards use

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
Winner of the last meeting (headline)19459.8%52.8 to 66.4%

By how the last meeting ended

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
Last meeting was a finish10556.2%46.6 to 65.3%
Last meeting went another way8964.0%53.7 to 73.2%

Has it held over time? (the winner of the last meeting)

YearsFightsWin rate95% range
1994 to 200521fewer than 30 fights, too few to call
2006 to 20155860.3%47.5 to 71.9%
2016 to today11559.1%50.0 to 67.7%

How we counted

Every UFC bout on the official statistical record from 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026 that had a winner. Draws, no-contests and overturned results are left out of every count. A rematch is any UFC bout between two fighters who had met in the UFC before. The subject is the winner of their most recent meeting; a previous meeting that ended in a draw or no-contest is left out.

Anything built from a fighter's history (debuts, runs, breaks, previous meetings) only looks at UFC bouts dated before the fight, and leaves out the few names the register holds for two different fighters. A row needs at least 30 fights to be drawn or quoted; smaller rows are listed as too few to call. The 95% range is a Wilson interval: where the true rate probably sits, given how many fights there are.