This Saturday Buckley vs Malott · Rogers Place Edmonton AB Canada See this week's picks →
FightIQ · The Lab · Reach

Does reach matter in the UFC?

Yes: the fighter with the longer reach has won 59.5% of UFC fights where the reach gap was 7 inches or more, against 50.1% when it was 1 to 2 inches.

Headline: 59.5% of 375 fights, 95% range 54.4% to 64.3% · counted from 8,760 UFC fights with a winner, 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026
Does reach matter in the UFC? How often the fighter with the longer reach won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the fighter with the longer reach won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 59.5% of 375 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useReach gap of 1 to 2 inches: 50.1% of 3,408 fights (95% range 48.5 to 51.8%)Reach gap of 1 to 2 inches3,408 fights50.1%Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches: 53.1% of 2,003 fights (95% range 50.9 to 55.3%)Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches2,003 fights53.1%Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches: 54.0% of 900 fights (95% range 50.7 to 57.2%)Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches900 fights54.0%Reach gap of 7 inches or more: 59.5% of 375 fights (95% range 54.4 to 64.3%)Reach gap of 7 inches or more375 fights59.5%Inch by inch1 in: 50.2% of 1,820 fights (95% range 47.9 to 52.5%)1 in1,820 fights50.2%2 in: 50.1% of 1,588 fights (95% range 47.6 to 52.5%)2 in1,588 fights50.1%3 in: 52.0% of 1,201 fights (95% range 49.1 to 54.8%)3 in1,201 fights52.0%4 in: 54.9% of 802 fights (95% range 51.4 to 58.3%)4 in802 fights54.9%5 in: 51.1% of 550 fights (95% range 46.9 to 55.2%)5 in550 fights51.1%6 in: 58.6% of 350 fights (95% range 53.3 to 63.6%)6 in350 fights58.6%7 in: 54.5% of 198 fights (95% range 47.6 to 61.3%)7 in198 fights54.5%8 in: 64.1% of 92 fights (95% range 53.9 to 73.2%)8 in92 fights64.1%9+ in: 65.9% of 85 fights (95% range 55.3 to 75.1%)9+ in85 fights65.9%
Does reach matter in the UFC? How often the fighter with the longer reach won, row by rowEach row is a group of UFC fights; the dot is how often the fighter with the longer reach won, the whisker its 95% range, the dashed line 50%, a coin flip. Headline row: 59.5% of 375 fights. Rows under 30 fights are not drawn.40%50%60%70%80%50%, a coin flipThe rows the fight-page cards useReach gap of 1 to 2 inches: 50.1% of 3,408 fights (95% range 48.5 to 51.8%)Reach gap of 1 to 2 inches3,408 fights50.1%Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches: 53.1% of 2,003 fights (95% range 50.9 to 55.3%)Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches2,003 fights53.1%Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches: 54.0% of 900 fights (95% range 50.7 to 57.2%)Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches900 fights54.0%Reach gap of 7 inches or more: 59.5% of 375 fights (95% range 54.4 to 64.3%)Reach gap of 7 inches or more375 fights59.5%Inch by inch1 in: 50.2% of 1,820 fights (95% range 47.9 to 52.5%)1 in1,820 fights50.2%2 in: 50.1% of 1,588 fights (95% range 47.6 to 52.5%)2 in1,588 fights50.1%3 in: 52.0% of 1,201 fights (95% range 49.1 to 54.8%)3 in1,201 fights52.0%4 in: 54.9% of 802 fights (95% range 51.4 to 58.3%)4 in802 fights54.9%5 in: 51.1% of 550 fights (95% range 46.9 to 55.2%)5 in550 fights51.1%6 in: 58.6% of 350 fights (95% range 53.3 to 63.6%)6 in350 fights58.6%7 in: 54.5% of 198 fights (95% range 47.6 to 61.3%)7 in198 fights54.5%8 in: 64.1% of 92 fights (95% range 53.9 to 73.2%)8 in92 fights64.1%9+ in: 65.9% of 85 fights (95% range 55.3 to 75.1%)9+ in85 fights65.9%
How often the fighter with the longer reach won, with a 95% range on every row. filled: clear of the dashed linehollow: could be chanceRows resting on fewer than 30 fights are not drawn.

What this means for a fight

A reach gap of an inch or two is noise: those fights split down the middle. The advantage only starts to show once the gap is several inches, and even then the longer-armed fighter loses a good share of those fights.

Correlation is not causation. A long reach travels with other things: longer fighters tend to be taller and are often the bigger man in the division, so these rows compare fighters who differ in more than arm length.

The latest fights in the headline row

The most recent UFC fights counted in the headline row (7 inches or more).

The numbers

The rows the fight-page cards use

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
Reach gap of 1 to 2 inches3,40850.1%48.5 to 51.8%
Reach gap of 3 to 4 inches2,00353.1%50.9 to 55.3%
Reach gap of 5 to 6 inches90054.0%50.7 to 57.2%
Reach gap of 7 inches or more (headline)37559.5%54.4 to 64.3%

Inch by inch

GroupFightsWin rate95% range
1 in1,82050.2%47.9 to 52.5%
2 in1,58850.1%47.6 to 52.5%
3 in1,20152.0%49.1 to 54.8%
4 in80254.9%51.4 to 58.3%
5 in55051.1%46.9 to 55.2%
6 in35058.6%53.3 to 63.6%
7 in19854.5%47.6 to 61.3%
8 in9264.1%53.9 to 73.2%
9+ in8565.9%55.3 to 75.1%

Has it held over time? (7 inches or more)

YearsFightsWin rate95% range
1994 to 20052fewer than 30 fights, too few to call
2006 to 201513361.7%53.2 to 69.5%
2016 to today24057.9%51.6 to 64.0%

How we counted

Every UFC bout on the official statistical record from 11 March 1994 to 10 October 2026 that had a winner. Draws, no-contests and overturned results are left out of every count. Reach is the fighter's current listed reach on the official UFC register, one value per fighter applied to every past bout; bouts where either reach is missing or the two are equal are left out.

Anything built from a fighter's history (debuts, runs, breaks, previous meetings) only looks at UFC bouts dated before the fight, and leaves out the few names the register holds for two different fighters. A row needs at least 30 fights to be drawn or quoted; smaller rows are listed as too few to call. The 95% range is a Wilson interval: where the true rate probably sits, given how many fights there are.