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Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando prediction
Light Heavyweight · Bonfim vs Brady · 7 Nov 2026
Elekana comes in on a 3-fight UFC winning run. A fighter on a run of 3 against an opponent on a shorter one wins 56% of the time (435 of 773 fights).
History leans Elekana on 1 of these; our early read still favours Fernando.
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
The facts, side by side — Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando.
| UFC 3-1 | UFC record | UFC 1-0 |
| 10-2 | Pro record | 14-3 |
| Son of Susie | Nickname | — |
| 6' 3" | Height | 6' 3" |
| 77" | Reach | 80" |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 31 | Age | 29 |
| 205 lbs. | Weight | 205 lbs. |
| United States | Nationality | Brazil |
| Victorville, California, United States | Born in | — |
| Las Vegas, Nevada, United States | Fights out of | — |
| — | Hometown (per Sherdog) | Rio de Janeiro |
| Uprising MMA | Camp | Rizzo RVT |
Our read — not official stats. Six 0–100 scores, each a percentile rank against the fighter’s own weight class (the full roster where a division is too thin to rank in). The better score on each row is highlighted in that fighter's corner colour.
Career UFC significant strikes by target zone. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Billy Elekana4 UFC fights · 96 landed
Lucas Fernando1 UFC fights · 69 landed
Limited sampleSignificant strikes only, as recorded by UFCStats, across the fighter's whole UFC career. Shares are raw counts — nothing here is modelled or smoothed. Accuracy is landed ÷ attempted and comes from the per-round tape, which covers slightly fewer fights than the totals do. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Billy Elekana
Lucas Fernando
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (6.25 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Billy Elekana (left) vs Lucas Fernando (right) — career striking & grappling rates.
Who these two are — reported newsroom prose where we have it, our own data-built profile where we don’t. Each is labelled.
6' 3" southpaw all-rounder campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 3 UFC wins — 2 submission, 1 decision.
6' 3" orthodox all-rounder campaigning at Light Heavyweight. 1 UFC win — 1 KO/TKO.