Round 1Ended 4:23
25 of 51
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 26
2 of 2
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
2:16
Control
0:00
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 17
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 13Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
Blue corner
IsmaelBonfim“Marreta”Bonfim Brothers · Hometown (per Sherdog): Brasilia, Federal District
The story going in
- Has dropped 4 straight in the UFC.
- Has dropped 3 straight in the UFC.
- Carries 36 points more takedown defence than Prado.
13-5
Record
20-8
−6 yr24
Age
30
+2″5' 10"
Height
5' 8"
69″
Reach
+2″71″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6
UFC bouts
6
1/1100% of wins
Finishes
1/250% of wins
American Top Team
Gym
Bonfim Brothers
San Lorenzo, Santa Fehometown, per Sherdog
From
Brasilia, Federal Districthometown, per Sherdog
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Francisco Prado
67.7% confidentMED
The fight
Francisco Prado
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Prado is 6 years younger. With an age gap of 6 to 7 years, the younger fighter wins 60% of UFC fights (636 of 1,056 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Francisco Prado
Round
1
Clock
4:23
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jason Herzog.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Francisco Prado
0.76 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.22 / 15m
4.00 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
3.70 / 15m
19%
ACCURACY
33%
0.80 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
40%
TD DEFENCE
76%
Ismael Bonfim
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked roster-wide
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Francisco PradoIsmael BonfimPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Francisco Prado's implied chance moved up from 47% to 60% (+12.5pp).
This series stops at Oct 10 23:01Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Francisco Prado at 67.7%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 59.5% — our number sat 8.2pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado — sportsbook consensus | 47.1% | 46.8% | 59.5% | 59.5% | +12.4pp |
| Ismael Bonfim — sportsbook consensus | 52.9% | 40.5% | 53.2% | 40.5% | −12.4pp |
| Francisco Prado — Polymarket | 47.0% | 42.0% | 60.5% | 59.5% | +12.5pp |
| Ismael Bonfim — Polymarket | 53.0% | 39.5% | 58.0% | 40.5% | −12.5pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,190 snapshots on file · window Oct 02 17:11–Oct 10 22:51Z · last capture Oct 10, 22:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.