Serghei Spivac is 9-6 in 15 UFC heavyweight fights and has lost three of his last five, to Ciryl Gane, Jailton Almeida and Waldo Cortes Acosta, with a decision over Ante Delija in February 2026 the most recent entry. Vitor Petrino is 7-2 in nine and has won three straight since moving up from light heavyweight, stopping Austen Lane and Thomas Petersen along the way. The model has Petrino, and the read is the direction each career is pointing.
The read
The model is siding with the shorter, cleaner recent run over the longer record. Petrino's path is what heavyweight has given him, a first-round submission of Lane and a third-round stoppage of Petersen. Spivac's path is his grappling, which submitted Marcin Tybura inside a round and is the one area where his experience clearly outweighs Petrino's. Most likely method is knockout or TKO, which is where Spivac has been most vulnerable, stopped twice in his last five.
What decides it
- Heavyweight, three rounds
- Petrino on a three-fight win streak at heavyweight
- Spivac stopped twice in his last five
- Spivac's submission game the clearest route to an upset
- Knockout or TKO the likely method