Mike Davis is 5-2 through seven UFC lightweight fights, with a submission win over Natan Levy, a KO/TKO of Mitch Ramirez in July 2025 and decision wins over Mason Jones and Viacheslav Borshchev, against a unanimous decision loss to Fares Ziam. Nurullo Aliev is 3-0 through three, and all three came on the scorecards, over Rafael Alves, Joe Solecki and Shem Rock. The model has Aliev HIGH at 68.0%, with the decision as the likeliest method.
The read
HIGH tier on an unbeaten fighter who has never finished a UFC opponent is an unusual combination, and it says the model is reading the way Aliev wins rather than how emphatically. Aliev's path is the Solecki and Rock fights repeated, controlling position and taking rounds without ever needing to hurt anyone. Davis' path is the finish, because he owns both a submission and a KO/TKO in this sample and neither is anywhere on Aliev's record. The tell is that this is the smaller of the two HIGH picks and three larger numbers elsewhere on the card did not draw the label, so the flag is about the shape of the matchup rather than the size of the gap.
What decides it
- Aliev's three-decision control record against Davis' mixed finishing threat
- Aliev has never had to win a fight from a bad position in the octagon
- Davis' path is the finish, either the submission he found on Levy or the KO/TKO he found on Ramirez
- Lightweight three-rounder that the model expects to reach the judges
- HIGH tier, though the smaller of the two on this card