Song Yadong arrives 12-4-1 across 17 UFC appearances, with a recent stretch that alternates results: decision wins over Chris Gutierrez and Henry Cejudo, decision losses to Petr Yan and Sean O'Malley, then a second-round submission of Deiveson Figueiredo in May. Umar Nurmagomedov is 8-1 through nine UFC fights, and all five of his most recent bouts went to the judges, including the unanimous-decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili in a bantamweight title fight in January 2025. Since that loss he has decisioned Mario Bautista and Figueiredo. The model has Nurmagomedov HIGH at 71.5%.
The read
HIGH on a five-round bantamweight fight is the model saying it sees a structural gap rather than a preference. Nurmagomedov's path is the one his record already writes for him: bank rounds, keep the fight in judged territory, where nine of his last 10 UFC results have been settled. Song's path is the one he showed against Figueiredo, the only stoppage in his last five, and the fastest way to make a five-round read irrelevant. The tell is the shared opponent: Song submitted Figueiredo in two rounds where Nurmagomedov needed 15 minutes, and the model still lands this far to the Russian, which means it is weighting the consistency of the record over the finish.
What decides it
- Decision-shaped matchup on paper, with nine of the two men's last 10 results going to the judges
- Song's four-fight alternating win-loss pattern against Nurmagomedov's single UFC defeat
- Song's path is the Figueiredo script, a finish before the scorecards matter
- Bantamweight over five rounds, championship distance and championship pacing
- HIGH tier, the firmest read on the card