Conor McGregor is 10-4 in 14 UFC fights and has not competed in the octagon since July 10, 2021, when a doctor's stoppage ended his first round against Dustin Poirier. That was his second straight loss to Poirier and his third defeat in five. Max Holloway has 32 UFC fights and a 23-9 record, has fought in every recent year, and comes in off a five-round decision loss to Charles Oliveira in March, with knockouts of Justin Gaethje and Chan Sung Jung and a decision win over Poirier in the same window. The model leans to Holloway at 65.2%.
The read
The lean is clear without being a firm one, and the gap it is built on is activity. Holloway's path is simply to use the round count, since he has been to the judges and back inside the last 18 months while McGregor has not fought at all in five years. McGregor's path is the one his record has always described, a knockout, and the Eddie Alvarez and Donald Cerrone finishes say he needs less time than most to find one. The interesting part is the method read: with a five-year layoff on one side and 32 fights on the other, the model still calls decision the likeliest outcome, which is an expectation of Holloway's durability holding the fight into deep water.
What decides it
- Layoff against volume, with McGregor's last octagon appearance in July 2021
- Holloway has fought recently and often; McGregor's last five span nearly five years
- McGregor's path is an early knockout, the way his Alvarez and Cerrone wins ended
- Five rounds scheduled, a distance Holloway has worked often and McGregor has not seen since 2021
- A clear lean, not a firm one, and the layoff is the largest unknown in it