Brandon Royval is 7-5 in 12 UFC fights, with split-decision wins over Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira and a five-round decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a flyweight title fight in December 2023. His recent form has turned: a decision loss to Joshua Van last June and a first-round knockout loss to Manel Kape in December. Lone'er Kavanagh is 3-1 in the UFC, with decision wins over Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, a second-round KO loss to Charles Johnson and a five-round unanimous decision over Moreno in February.
The read
This is close to a coin flip, and the model's thin lean reflects it. Royval's path is his own experience, 12 UFC fights and five rounds against a champion, against an opponent with four UFC fights who beat Moreno over five rounds in February. Kavanagh's path is that win, a fighter who has just gone 25 minutes with a former champion and taken the cards. The tell is how little the model does with Royval's history: two losses in his last three, one of them a first-round knockout, and the read lands barely above a coin flip.
What decides it
- Twelve UFC fights against four, and Kavanagh's latest is a five-round win over Moreno
- Royval has lost three of his last five, including a first-round knockout in December
- Kavanagh's path is the one that beat Moreno: three of his four UFC fights have gone the distance and he has won all three
- Flyweight over three rounds, a division where pace usually decides the scorecards
- Barely off even, with experience on one side and recent form on the other