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Fantasy matchup

Sergei Pavlovich vs Josh HokitFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#3 at Heavyweight · #4 at Heavyweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
UFC 9-3 · Pro 21-3
#3 at Heavyweight
VS
UFC 4-0 · Pro 10-0
#4 at Heavyweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Sergei Pavlovich 51% Josh Hokit 49%

Run as an unbooked fight, this one splits our two reads — they do not name the same winner, so there is no lean here to give you.

Our two reads disagree. One leans Sergei Pavlovich at 51%; the other leans Josh Hokit at 53%. When they split like this there is no read worth having — treat it as a coin toss.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 44%.

KO/TKO
70%
Submission
8%
Decision
23%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Sergei Pavlovich vs Josh Hokit — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 9-3UFC recordUFC 4-0
21-3Pro record10-0
6' 3"Height6' 1"
84"Reach73"
SouthpawStanceOrthodox
34Age28
257 lbs.Weight235 lbs.
RussiaNationalityUnited States
Rostov-on-Don, Rostov OblastHometownClovis, California
Eagles MMAFighting out ofJackson-Wink MMA
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Sergei Pavlovich (left) vs Josh Hokit (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
4.49
vs
9.29
Striking accuracy
44%
vs
64%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.58
vs
5.28
Striking defence
56%
vs
48%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.47
vs
3.73
Takedown accuracy
25%
vs
47%
Takedown defence
75%
vs
77%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.4
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Sergei Pavlovich and Josh Hokit have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

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