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Compare · Fantasy matchups · Sean O'Malley vs Mario Bautista
Fantasy matchup

Sean O'Malley vs Mario BautistaFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#2 at Bantamweight · #5 at Bantamweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Sean O'Malley
UFC 12-3 (1 draw/NC) · Pro 20-3
#2 at Bantamweight
VS
Mario Bautista
UFC 12-3 · Pro 18-3
#5 at Bantamweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Sean O'Malley 61% Mario Bautista 39%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Sean O'Malley at 61% — a lean, not a conviction.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Sean O'Malley — 61% on the first, 65% on the second, 4 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 58%.

KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Decision
55%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Sean O'Malley vs Mario Bautista — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 12-3 (1 draw/NC)UFC recordUFC 12-3
20-3Pro record18-3
SugaNickname—
5' 11"Height5' 9"
72"▲Reach69"
SwitchStanceSwitch
31Age33
135 lbs.Weight135 lbs.
United StatesNationalityUnited States
Helena, MontanaHometownPhoenix, Arizona
Red Hawk AcademyFighting out ofMMA Lab
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Sean O'Malley (left) vs Mario Bautista (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
5.98
vs
5.52
Striking accuracy
60%
vs
50%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.4
vs
4.17
Striking defence
59%
vs
54%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.23
vs
2.49
Takedown accuracy
42%
vs
38%
Takedown defence
60%
vs
57%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.2
vs
1.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Sean O'Malley and Mario Bautista have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Sean O'Malley — record, tape and career → Mario Bautista — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
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