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Compare · Fantasy matchups · Merab Dvalishvili vs Mario Bautista
Fantasy matchup

Merab Dvalishvili vs Mario BautistaFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#1 at Bantamweight · #5 at Bantamweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Merab Dvalishvili
UFC 14-3 · Pro 21-5
#1 at Bantamweight
VS
Mario Bautista
UFC 12-3 · Pro 18-3
#5 at Bantamweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Merab Dvalishvili 68% Mario Bautista 32%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Merab Dvalishvili at 68% — a clear lean.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Merab Dvalishvili — 68% on the first, 61% on the second, 7 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 60%.

KO/TKO
15%
Submission
13%
Decision
72%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Merab Dvalishvili vs Mario Bautista — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 14-3UFC recordUFC 12-3
21-5Pro record18-3
The MachineNickname—
5' 6"Height5' 9"
68"Reach▲69"
OrthodoxStanceSwitch
35Age33
135 lbs.Weight135 lbs.
GeorgiaNationalityUnited States
TbilisiHometownPhoenix, Arizona
Serra-Longo Fight TeamFighting out ofMMA Lab
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Merab Dvalishvili (left) vs Mario Bautista (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
4.42
vs
5.52
Striking accuracy
41%
vs
50%
Strikes absorbed / min
2.8
vs
4.17
Striking defence
54%
vs
54%
Takedowns / 15 min
5.97
vs
2.49
Takedown accuracy
35%
vs
38%
Takedown defence
76%
vs
57%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.3
vs
1.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Merab Dvalishvili and Mario Bautista have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Merab Dvalishvili — record, tape and career → Mario Bautista — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
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