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Compare · Fantasy matchups · Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan
Fantasy matchup

Justin Gaethje vs Arman TsarukyanFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

Lightweight champion · #2 at Lightweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Justin Gaethje
UFC 11-5 · Pro 28-5
Lightweight champion
VS
Arman Tsarukyan
UFC 10-2 · Pro 24-3
#2 at Lightweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Justin Gaethje 31% Arman Tsarukyan 69%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Arman Tsarukyan at 69% — a clear lean.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Arman Tsarukyan — 69% on the first, 69% on the second, the same number.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 47%.

KO/TKO
26%
Submission
8%
Decision
65%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Justin Gaethje vs Arman Tsarukyan — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 11-5UFC recordUFC 10-2
28-5Pro record24-3
The HighlightNicknameAhalkalakets
5' 11"Height5' 7"
70"Reach▲72"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
37Age29
155 lbs.Weight155 lbs.
United StatesNationalityRussia
Safford, ArizonaHometownKhabarovsk, Khabarovsk Krai
Genesis Training CenterFighting out ofAmerican Top Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Justin Gaethje (left) vs Arman Tsarukyan (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
6.29
vs
3.85
Striking accuracy
57%
vs
50%
Strikes absorbed / min
6.83
vs
1.8
Striking defence
50%
vs
54%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.3
vs
3.26
Takedown accuracy
26%
vs
37%
Takedown defence
73%
vs
75%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0
vs
0.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Justin Gaethje and Arman Tsarukyan have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Justin Gaethje — record, tape and career → Arman Tsarukyan — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
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