This Saturday Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Meta APEX Las Vegas, NV United States See this week's picks →
Compare · Fantasy matchups · Ilia Topuria vs Arman Tsarukyan
Fantasy matchup

Ilia Topuria vs Arman TsarukyanFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#1 at Lightweight · #2 at Lightweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Ilia Topuria
UFC 9-1 · Pro 17-1
#1 at Lightweight
VS
Arman Tsarukyan
UFC 10-2 · Pro 24-3
#2 at Lightweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Ilia Topuria 58% Arman Tsarukyan 42%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Ilia Topuria at 58% — a lean, not a conviction.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Ilia Topuria — 58% on the first, 53% on the second, 5 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 50%.

Hypothetical run at Lightweight; Ilia Topuria fought mainly at Featherweight.

KO/TKO
34%
Submission
13%
Decision
53%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Ilia Topuria vs Arman Tsarukyan — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 9-1UFC recordUFC 10-2
17-1Pro record24-3
El MatadorNicknameAhalkalakets
5' 7"Height5' 7"
69"Reach▲72"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
29Age29
155 lbs.Weight155 lbs.
GeorgiaNationalityRussia
Rustavi, Kvemo KartliHometownKhabarovsk, Khabarovsk Krai
Topuria TeamFighting out ofAmerican Top Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Ilia Topuria (left) vs Arman Tsarukyan (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
4.82
vs
3.85
Striking accuracy
50%
vs
50%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.97
vs
1.8
Striking defence
62%
vs
54%
Takedowns / 15 min
1.73
vs
3.26
Takedown accuracy
57%
vs
37%
Takedown defence
95%
vs
75%
Sub attempts / 15 min
0.9
vs
0.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Ilia Topuria and Arman Tsarukyan have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Ilia Topuria — record, tape and career → Arman Tsarukyan — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
← All fantasy matchups