A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.
Run as an unbooked fight, this one splits our two reads — they do not name the same winner, so there is no lean here to give you.
Our two reads disagree. One leans Diego Lopes at 54%; the other leans Aljamain Sterling at 59%. When they split like this there is no read worth having — treat it as a coin toss.
The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 56%.
Hypothetical run at Featherweight; Aljamain Sterling fought mainly at Bantamweight.
Diego Lopes vs Aljamain Sterling — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.
| UFC 7-3 | UFC record | UFC 18-5 |
| 28-8 | Pro record | 26-5 |
| — | Nickname | Funk Master |
| 5' 11" | Height | 5' 7" |
| 72"▲ | Reach | 71" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 31 | Age | 37 |
| 145 lbs. | Weight | 145 lbs. |
| Brazil | Nationality | United States |
| Manaus, Amazonas | Hometown | Cortland, New York |
| Lobo Gym MMA | Fighting out of | Serra-Longo Fight Team |
Diego Lopes (left) vs Aljamain Sterling (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.
None.
Diego Lopes and Aljamain Sterling have never met in the UFC.
Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.
Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.