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Fantasy matchup

Diego Lopes vs Aljamain SterlingFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#2 at Featherweight · #4 at Featherweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
UFC 7-3 · Pro 28-8
#2 at Featherweight
VS
UFC 18-5 · Pro 26-5
#4 at Featherweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Diego Lopes 54% Aljamain Sterling 46%

Run as an unbooked fight, this one splits our two reads — they do not name the same winner, so there is no lean here to give you.

Our two reads disagree. One leans Diego Lopes at 54%; the other leans Aljamain Sterling at 59%. When they split like this there is no read worth having — treat it as a coin toss.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 56%.

Hypothetical run at Featherweight; Aljamain Sterling fought mainly at Bantamweight.

KO/TKO
27%
Submission
9%
Decision
63%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Diego Lopes vs Aljamain Sterling — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 7-3UFC recordUFC 18-5
28-8Pro record26-5
NicknameFunk Master
5' 11"Height5' 7"
72"Reach71"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
31Age37
145 lbs.Weight145 lbs.
BrazilNationalityUnited States
Manaus, AmazonasHometownCortland, New York
Lobo Gym MMAFighting out ofSerra-Longo Fight Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Diego Lopes (left) vs Aljamain Sterling (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
3.79
vs
4.26
Striking accuracy
47%
vs
52%
Strikes absorbed / min
4.65
vs
2.15
Striking defence
46%
vs
59%
Takedowns / 15 min
0.82
vs
2.54
Takedown accuracy
46%
vs
32%
Takedown defence
68%
vs
44%
Sub attempts / 15 min
1.3
vs
0.6
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Diego Lopes and Aljamain Sterling have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

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