Ciryl Gane vs Sergei Pavlovich — fantasy matchup

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Ciryl Gane 70% Sergei Pavlovich 30%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Ciryl Gane at 70% — a clear lean.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Ciryl Gane — 70% on the first, 63% on the second, 7 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 39%.

KO/TKO

51%

Submission

12%

Decision

37%

These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Ciryl Gane vs Sergei Pavlovich — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 11-2 (1 draw/NC)	UFC record	UFC 9-3
14-2	Pro record	21-3
Bon Gamin	Nickname	—
6' 4"	Height	6' 3"
81"	Reach	▲84"
Orthodox	Stance	Southpaw
36	Age	34
247 lbs.	Weight	257 lbs.
France	Nationality	Russia
Paris	Hometown	Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast
MMA Factory	Fighting out of	Eagles MMA

Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Ciryl Gane (left) vs Sergei Pavlovich (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min

5.4

4.49

Striking accuracy

61%

44%

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

3.58

Striking defence

60%

56%

Takedowns / 15 min

0.66

0.47

Takedown accuracy

23%

25%

Takedown defence

47%

75%

Sub attempts / 15 min

0.6

Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Ciryl Gane — record, tape and career → Sergei Pavlovich — record, tape and career → This week's real card →

← All fantasy matchups

Ciryl Gane vs Sergei PavlovichFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

If they fought

Tale of the tape

Stat-by-stat

Fights that have happened between them

The real fighters