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Fantasy matchup

Charles Oliveira vs Paddy PimblettFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#3 at Lightweight · #5 at Lightweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
UFC 25-11 (1 draw/NC) · Pro 37-11
#3 at Lightweight
VS
UFC 8-1 · Pro 24-4
#5 at Lightweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Charles Oliveira 44% Paddy Pimblett 56%

Run as an unbooked fight, this one splits our two reads — they do not name the same winner, so there is no lean here to give you.

Our two reads disagree. One leans Paddy Pimblett at 56%; the other leans Charles Oliveira at 51%. When they split like this there is no read worth having — treat it as a coin toss.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 53%.

KO/TKO
23%
Submission
38%
Decision
39%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Charles Oliveira vs Paddy Pimblett — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 25-11 (1 draw/NC)UFC recordUFC 8-1
37-11Pro record24-4
Do BronxsNicknameThe Baddy
5' 10"Height5' 10"
74"Reach73"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
36Age31
155 lbs.Weight155 lbs.
BrazilNationalityEngland
Guaruja, Sao PauloHometownLiverpool, Merseyside
Fighting out ofNext Generation MMA Liverpool
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Charles Oliveira (left) vs Paddy Pimblett (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
3.23
vs
5.48
Striking accuracy
55%
vs
52%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
vs
3.86
Striking defence
48%
vs
42%
Takedowns / 15 min
2.29
vs
0.68
Takedown accuracy
39%
vs
21%
Takedown defence
54%
vs
46%
Sub attempts / 15 min
2.6
vs
1.4
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Charles Oliveira and Paddy Pimblett have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

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