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Compare · Fantasy matchups · Alexandre Pantoja vs Kyoji Horiguchi
Fantasy matchup

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kyoji HoriguchiFantasy matchup — not a booked fight

#1 at Flyweight · #5 at Flyweight
Not a booked fightFANTASY MATCHUP — this fight is not booked. What our two blind models would say if it were.
Alexandre Pantoja
UFC 14-4 · Pro 30-7
#1 at Flyweight
VS
Kyoji Horiguchi
UFC 9-2 · Pro 36-6
#5 at Flyweight

If they fought

A statistical read on a fight that does not exist — no market, no booking, nothing to grade it against.

Alexandre Pantoja 48% Kyoji Horiguchi 52%

Run as an unbooked fight, the numbers favour Kyoji Horiguchi at 52% — close enough to be a coin toss — there is no meaningful separation between them.

Our two reads agree, and closely. Both land on Kyoji Horiguchi — 52% on the first, 57% on the second, 5 points apart.

The same read puts the chance it goes the full distance at 62%.

KO/TKO
20%
Submission
11%
Decision
69%
These figures come from the same statistical reads we run on real cards, with the betting market removed — there is no market on a fight nobody has booked. Nothing here is timestamped against a result, nothing here is graded, and none of it counts towards our public record. It is a thought experiment with real numbers behind it.

Tale of the tape

Alexandre Pantoja vs Kyoji Horiguchi — the facts, side by side. ▲ marks the reach edge.

UFC 14-4UFC recordUFC 9-2
30-7Pro record36-6
The CannibalNickname—
5' 5"Height5' 4"
67"▲Reach63"
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
36Age35
125 lbs.Weight125 lbs.
BrazilNationalityJapan
Arraial do Cabo, Rio de JaneiroHometownTakasaki, Gunma
American Top TeamFighting out ofAmerican Top Team
Vitals and record from public UFC statistics; nickname, nationality, hometown and camp from the public fighter register. The UFC record is counted from the official results themselves.

Stat-by-stat

Alexandre Pantoja (left) vs Kyoji Horiguchi (right) — career striking & grappling rates. The fighter ahead on each row is highlighted in their corner colour.

Strikes landed / min
4.38
vs
3.64
Striking accuracy
50%
vs
47%
Strikes absorbed / min
3.88
vs
2.08
Striking defence
49%
vs
64%
Takedowns / 15 min
2.79
vs
1.67
Takedown accuracy
47%
vs
40%
Takedown defence
69%
vs
61%
Sub attempts / 15 min
1
vs
0.1
Career averages from public UFC statistics. On “strikes absorbed / min”, fewer is better.

Fights that have happened between them

None.

Alexandre Pantoja and Kyoji Horiguchi have never met in the UFC.

Every matchup on this page is a pairing that has never happened. That is how they are chosen: if these two had already met in the Octagon, there would be a real result to read instead, and this page would not exist.

The real fighters

Everything above is hypothetical. These are not.

Alexandre Pantoja — record, tape and career → Kyoji Horiguchi — record, tape and career → This week's real card →
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