Round 1
31 of 59
Sig.
strikes
strikes
29 of 73
1 of 5
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:30
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 28Clinch 2Ground 1
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 23Clinch 6Ground 0
Red corner
RaoniBarcelosLaerte Barcelos Team · Born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil · Fights out of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
VSSettled
Blue corner
Raul RosasJr.“El Nino Problema”10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Las Vegas · Born in Clovis, New Mexico, United States · Fights out of Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
The story going in
- Comes in on a 5-fight win streak.
- Comes in on a 5-fight win streak.
- Has finished 4 of 11 UFC wins.
- Has finished 3 of 6 UFC wins.
22-6
Record
13-1
39
Age
−18 yr21
5' 7"
Height
+2″5' 9"
67″
Reach
67″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
+815
UFC bouts
7
4/1136% of wins
Finishes
+14%3/650% of wins
Laerte Barcelos Team
Gym
10th Planet Jiu Jitsu Las Vegas
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Born in
Clovis, New Mexico, United States
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Fights out of
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Raul Rosas Jr.
71.5% confidentMED
The fight
Raul Rosas Jr.
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
By the numbers
Age
Rosas Jr. is 17 years younger. With an age gap of 10 years or more, the younger fighter wins 69% of UFC fights (348 of 502 fights).
Counted from every UFC fight on record before this bout. These are history, not our model’s read.
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
5 rounds of tape
Round 2
58 of 90
Sig.
strikes
strikes
40 of 81
3 of 4
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:33
Control
0:06
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 54Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 36Clinch 4Ground 0
Round 3
26 of 45
Sig.
strikes
strikes
28 of 59
2 of 7
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
1:13
Control
0:32
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 24Clinch 2Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 20Clinch 4Ground 4
Round 45 sub attempts
8 of 18
Sig.
strikes
strikes
8 of 16
2 of 3
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
3:30
Control
0:00
5
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 8Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 5Ended 1:38
4 of 11
Sig.
strikes
strikes
8 of 22
1 of 3
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 3
0:35
Control
0:16
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 3Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 5Clinch 3Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Raul Rosas Jr.
Round
5
Clock
1:38
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Raoni Barcelos
2.88 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
5.02 / 15m
8.73 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
9.47 / 15m
33%
ACCURACY
53%
1.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m
86%
TD DEFENCE
53%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Bantamweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Raoni BarcelosRaul Rosas Jr.Polymarket
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Raul Rosas Jr.'s implied chance moved down from 70% to 57% (−12.0pp).
Our published call had Raul Rosas Jr. at 71.5%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 57.5% — our number sat 14.0pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos — Polymarket | 30.5% | 30.5% | 43.5% | 42.5% | +12.0pp |
| Raul Rosas Jr. — Polymarket | 69.5% | 56.5% | 69.5% | 57.5% | −12.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners). 1,039 snapshots on file · window Sep 19 19:11–Sep 26 23:51Z · last capture Sep 26, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.