Round 1
28 of 42
Sig.
strikes
strikes
21 of 38
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
2 of 2
0:00
Control
1:16
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 20Clinch 8Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 8Clinch 11Ground 2
Red corner
CharlesJourdain“Air”Academie Pro Star MMA · Born in Beloeil, Quebec, Canada · Fights out of Beloeil, Quebec, Canada
VSSettled
Blue corner
MarlonVera“Chito”Team Oyama · Born in Chone, Manabí, Ecuador · Fights out of Chone, Manabí, Ecuador
The story going in
- Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
- Has dropped 4 straight in the UFC.
- Has finished 6 of 9 UFC wins.
- Has finished 11 of 15 UFC wins.
18-9-1
Record
24-12-1
−3 yr30
Age
33
+1″5' 9"
Height
5' 8"
69″
Reach
+1″70″
Switch
Stance
Switch
17
UFC bouts
+926
6/967% of wins
Finishes
+7%11/1573% of wins
Academie Pro Star MMA
Gym
Team Oyama
Beloeil, Quebec, Canada
Born in
Chone, Manabí, Ecuador
Beloeil, Quebec, Canada
Fights out of
Chone, Manabí, Ecuador
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Where a fighter was born and where they fight out of come from their Wikipedia entry; where we hold neither, the hometown shown is Sherdog’s. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Charles Jourdain
73.8% confidentHIGH
The fight
Marlon Vera
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 2 KD Vera
40 of 59
Sig.
strikes
strikes
38 of 66
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
0:57
0
Knock-
downs
downs
2
Distance 29Clinch 11Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 20Clinch 6Ground 12
Round 3⚡ 1 KD VeraEnded 2:02
15 of 26
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 24
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:02
0
Knock-
downs
downs
1
Distance 10Clinch 5Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 9Clinch 4Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Marlon Vera
Round
3
Clock
2:02
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Mike Beltran.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Charles Jourdain
0.36 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.57 / 15m
1.80 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
1.27 / 15m
20%
ACCURACY
45%
0.60 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.70 / 15m
44%
TD DEFENCE
72%
Marlon Vera
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.50 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Bantamweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Charles JourdainMarlon VeraPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Charles Jourdain's implied chance moved down from 68% to 64% (−4.0pp).
Our published call had Charles Jourdain at 73.8%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had the same fighter at 64.5% — our number sat 9.3pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Jourdain — sportsbook consensus | 68.7% | 63.9% | 69.4% | 64.4% | −4.3pp |
| Marlon Vera — sportsbook consensus | 31.3% | 30.6% | 36.1% | 35.6% | +4.3pp |
| Charles Jourdain — Polymarket | 68.5% | 64.5% | 69.0% | 64.5% | −4.0pp |
| Marlon Vera — Polymarket | 31.5% | 31.0% | 35.5% | 35.5% | +4.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,560 snapshots on file · window Sep 09 04:11–Sep 19 23:51Z · last capture Sep 19, 23:51Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.