Round 1
11 of 22
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 39
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 11Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 19Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Every one of Guskov’s 4 UFC wins came inside the distance.
- Has finished 6 of 12 UFC wins.
- 16 UFC bouts deep — 10 more than Guskov.
18-4-1
Record
22-2-1
−1 yr33
Age
34
6' 3"
Height
6' 3"
+1″76″
Reach
75″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6
UFC bouts
+1016
+50%4/4100% of wins
Finishes
6/1250% of wins
GOR MMA
Gym
Gorets Fight Club
Dukent
From
Makhachkala, Dagestan
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Magomed Ankalaev
72.5% confidentMED
The fight
Magomed Ankalaev
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
5 rounds of tape
Round 2
12 of 17
Sig.
strikes
strikes
14 of 29
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:00
Control
1:21
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 12Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 10Clinch 4Ground 0
Round 3
15 of 22
Sig.
strikes
strikes
15 of 33
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 15Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 15Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 43 sub attempts
1 of 1
Sig.
strikes
strikes
3 of 5
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
4:50
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
3
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 3
Round 51 sub attemptEnded 2:41
No significant strikes landed — 1 thrown
0 of 1
Sig.
strikes
strikes
3 of 7
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 1
0:00
Control
2:15
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 0Clinch 0Ground 3
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Magomed Ankalaev
Round
5
Clock
2:41
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Bogdan Guskov
0.00 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.79 / 15m
n/a
ATTEMPTS
3.59 / 15m
n/a
ACCURACY
22%
0.70 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
57%
TD DEFENCE
87%
Magomed Ankalaev
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.96 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Light Heavyweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Bogdan GuskovMagomed AnkalaevPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Magomed Ankalaev's implied chance moved up from 80% to 82% (+2.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
Our published call had Magomed Ankalaev at 72.5%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 82.5% — our number sat 10.0pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov — sportsbook consensus | 20.3% | 17.9% | 21.4% | 18.7% | −1.6pp |
| Magomed Ankalaev — sportsbook consensus | 79.7% | 78.6% | 82.1% | 81.3% | +1.6pp |
| Bogdan Guskov — Polymarket | 19.5% | 17.5% | 50.0% | 17.5% | −2.0pp |
| Magomed Ankalaev — Polymarket | 80.5% | 50.0% | 82.5% | 82.5% | +2.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 2,275 snapshots on file · window Jul 17 15:12–Jul 25 14:18Z · last capture Jul 25, 14:18Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.