What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
1 round of tape
No significant strikes landed — 8 thrown
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Bia Mesquita
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Eric McMahon.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Bia Mesquita
Montse Rendon
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
We hold the closing consensus for this bout but no opening line, so the strip marks the close alone: Bia Mesquita 86.5%, Montse Rendon 13.5%, vig removed.
Our published call had Bia Mesquita at 56.1%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had him at 86.5% — our number sat 30.4pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bia Mesquita | — | -952 | — | 86.5% | — |
| Montse Rendon | 375 | 610 | — | 13.5% | — |
