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Events · UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs Asplund
14 Mar 2026
UFC Fight Night: Petrino vs Asplund
14 fights
HeadlinerJosh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos— this card is exported under the name of Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund, a prelims bout. Card order and the main-event badge below follow the promotion’s own card, not that name.
FightIQ 12-2on this card · 85.71% · 14 fights graded
Every pick on this card is one honest, calibrated confidence rating — the % is the signal. Graded against the official UFC result. See the full record →

The full card, graded

The recap · FightIQ NewsroomOur model went 12 for 14 at Petrino vs. Asplund. Here's the one it got wrong.A 12-of-14 night at 86% accuracy, with the main event called correctly. We grade every pick, including the flagged ones that didn't land.
MAIN CARD
★ Main Event · Featherweight Bout +400 / -556
Josh Emmett
VS
Kevin Vallejos
18% 82%
LOCK We predict Kevin Vallejos — 82% confident WIN
Kevin Vallejos at -556. Model 82.3% barely clears market 80.9%.
The breakdownEmmett is a power-punching veteran on a 2-fight skid with form reading LLWLL. Vallejos arrives 3-0 with a 66.7% KO rate and switch-stance versatili…

Emmett is a power-punching veteran on a 2-fight skid with form reading LLWLL. Vallejos arrives 3-0 with a 66.7% KO rate and switch-stance versatility at just 24 years old. The model sees this as a LOCK at 82.1% for Vallejos — youth, momentum, and finishing ability overwhelm the aging Emmett.

What decides it
  • Vallejos 3-0 with 66.7% KO rate at age 24
  • Emmett on a 2-fight losing streak (form: LLWLL)
  • Emmett is 41 years old — significant age decline
  • Vallejos switch-stance adds unpredictability
  • Model LOCK at 82.1% — massive confidence
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Women's Strawweight Bout +163 / -204
Amanda Lemos
VS
Gillian Robertson
34% 66%
MED We predict Gillian Robertson — 66% confident WIN
Gillian Robertson at -204. Model 66.2% vs market 63.8% (+2.4pp).
The breakdownRobertson rides a 4-fight win streak with 76.9% decision rate, showing the grinding style that frustrates opponents. Lemos alternates wins and loss…

Robertson rides a 4-fight win streak with 76.9% decision rate, showing the grinding style that frustrates opponents. Lemos alternates wins and losses (form: LWLWL) and at 38 may be slowing. Robertson's higher Elo (1612 vs 1593) reflects her recent form edge.

What decides it
  • Robertson on 4-fight win streak
  • Lemos alternating W/L pattern at age 38
  • Robertson 76.9% decision rate — grinder style
  • Robertson higher Elo (1612 vs 1593)
  • Model MED confidence at 66.1%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Featherweight Bout +265 / -345
Andre Fili
VS
JDJose Delgado
27% 73%
HIGH We predict Jose Delgado — 73% confident WIN
Jose Delgado model 72.7% — market tighter at 73.9%.
The breakdownDelgado is the heavy -345 favourite despite a 2-1 UFC record. At 27, he has youth over the 35-year-old Fili. Delgado has a 100% KO rate on his wins…

Delgado is the heavy -345 favourite despite a 2-1 UFC record. At 27, he has youth over the 35-year-old Fili. Delgado has a 100% KO rate on his wins. Fili is the experienced veteran at 13-11 with a 217-day layoff. Model has HIGH confidence at 72.9% for Delgado.

What decides it
  • Delgado 100% KO rate on wins
  • Fili aging veteran at 35 with 217-day layoff
  • Delgado 8 years younger (27 vs 35)
  • KO/TKO most likely at 53.2%
  • HIGH confidence at 72.9% but market too tight
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Featherweight Bout -278 / +210
Marwan Rahiki
VS
Harry Hardwick
76% 24%
HIGH We predict Marwan Rahiki — 76% confident WIN
Marwan Rahiki at -278. Model 75.5% vs market 69.5% (+6.0pp).
The breakdownRahiki makes his UFC debut as the heavy favourite at -278. Despite zero UFC fights, his Elo sits at 1500 (debut baseline) vs Hardwick's 1477 after…

Rahiki makes his UFC debut as the heavy favourite at -278. Despite zero UFC fights, his Elo sits at 1500 (debut baseline) vs Hardwick's 1477 after an 0-1 start. At 23, Rahiki has youth and a 1-inch reach advantage. The model sees HIGH confidence at 75.4%.

What decides it
  • Rahiki debut vs Hardwick already 0-1
  • Rahiki 8 years younger (23 vs 31)
  • HIGH confidence at 75.4% with +5.9pp edge
  • Under 2.5 rounds at 71% — finish likely
  • Three-way method split: KO 35%, SUB 31%, DEC 34%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Light Heavyweight Bout +190 / -238
Ion Cutelaba
VS
Oumar Sy
28% 72%
HIGH We predict Oumar Sy — 72% confident LOSS (Ion Cutelaba · SUB)
Oumar Sy at -238. Model 71.9% vs market 67.1% (+4.8pp).
The breakdownSy has a massive 8-inch reach advantage (83" vs 75") and higher Elo (1548 vs 1495). Cutelaba is 8-10 in his career with an alternating form (WLWWL)…

Sy has a massive 8-inch reach advantage (83" vs 75") and higher Elo (1548 vs 1495). Cutelaba is 8-10 in his career with an alternating form (WLWWL) and coming off a long 308-day layoff. Sy is on a win streak and the model sees HIGH confidence at 70.9%.

What decides it
  • Sy 8-inch reach advantage (83" vs 75")
  • Cutelaba 8-10 career record, long layoff (308 days)
  • Sy higher Elo (1548 vs 1495)
  • KO/TKO most likely method at 43.1%
  • HIGH confidence at 70.9%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Flyweight Bout -189 / +155
Charles Johnson
VS
BSBruno Silva
62% 38%
MED We predict Charles Johnson — 62% confident WIN
Charles Johnson model 62.4% — market tighter at 62.5%.
The breakdownJohnson has the higher Elo (1529 vs 1481) despite a 7-6 record. Silva is 9-11 overall with a 4-fight losing streak (LLLLW form) but has dangerous K…

Johnson has the higher Elo (1529 vs 1481) despite a 7-6 record. Silva is 9-11 overall with a 4-fight losing streak (LLLLW form) but has dangerous KO power (77.8% KO rate). Johnson fought just 49 days ago — quick turnaround. Silva has the size advantage at 6'0" with 74" reach.

What decides it
  • Johnson 48-point Elo advantage (1529 vs 1481)
  • Silva on extended losing run (9-11 overall)
  • Silva dangerous KO power (77.8% KO rate)
  • Johnson quick 49-day turnaround
  • Model MED at 62.1% but no betting edge
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
PRELIMS
Welterweight Bout +225 / -278
Chris Curtis
VS
Myktybek Orolbai
24% 76%
HIGH We predict Myktybek Orolbai — 76% confident WIN
Myktybek Orolbai at -278. Model 76.4% vs market 70.5% (+5.9pp).
The breakdownOrolbai is 10 years younger with a higher Elo (1580 vs 1562) and on a 2-fight win streak. Curtis is 38, coming off a long 245-day layoff with an in…

Orolbai is 10 years younger with a higher Elo (1580 vs 1562) and on a 2-fight win streak. Curtis is 38, coming off a long 245-day layoff with an inconsistent LWLLW form. The model has HIGH confidence at 77.0% for Orolbai with strong +6.5pp edge.

What decides it
  • Orolbai 10 years younger (28 vs 38)
  • Orolbai higher Elo and 2-fight win streak
  • Curtis long 245-day layoff
  • Model HIGH confidence at 77.0%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Heavyweight Bout -238 / +188
Vitor Petrino
VS
Steven Asplund
64% 36%
MED We predict Vitor Petrino — 64% confident WIN
Vitor Petrino model 64.0% — market tighter at 67.0%.
The breakdownPetrino has significant UFC experience at 6-2 with a 2-fight win streak and Elo of 1577. Asplund is 1-0 with a single KO win and Elo of 1523. Petri…

Petrino has significant UFC experience at 6-2 with a 2-fight win streak and Elo of 1577. Asplund is 1-0 with a single KO win and Elo of 1523. Petrino has a 54-point Elo advantage. KO/TKO is the top method at 45.7% — heavyweight power makes finishes live.

What decides it
  • Petrino 54-point Elo advantage (1577 vs 1523)
  • Petrino 6-2 vs Asplund 1-0
  • Asplund 3 inches taller with 1-inch reach edge
  • KO/TKO top method at 45.7%
  • Market tighter than model — no betting edge
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Bantamweight Bout +100 / +100
Elijah Smith
VS
SuYoung You
62% 38%
MED We predict Elijah Smith — 62% confident WIN
Elijah Smith at —. Model 61.9% vs market 50.0% (+11.9pp).
The breakdownSmith is just 23 and undefeated at 2-0 with a 50% finish rate. You is 3-0 with 100% decision rate and higher Elo (1568 vs 1543). Smith has a 6-inch…

Smith is just 23 and undefeated at 2-0 with a 50% finish rate. You is 3-0 with 100% decision rate and higher Elo (1568 vs 1543). Smith has a 6-inch reach advantage (71" vs 65") which could be decisive at bantamweight.

What decides it
  • Smith 6-inch reach advantage (71" vs 65")
  • Smith younger at 23 vs You at 30
  • Both undefeated — someone's 0 has to go
  • Decision 62.8% overwhelmingly likely
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Lightweight Bout +222 / -278
Bolaji Oki
VS
Manoel Sousa
34% 66%
MED We predict Manoel Sousa — 66% confident WIN
Manoel Sousa model 65.7% — market tighter at 70.3%.
The breakdownOki is 2-2 with 100% decision rate and alternating W/L form. Sousa makes his UFC debut with a baseline 1500 Elo. Near-identical stats but the marke…

Oki is 2-2 with 100% decision rate and alternating W/L form. Sousa makes his UFC debut with a baseline 1500 Elo. Near-identical stats but the market strongly favours Sousa at -278. The model agrees Sousa wins but sees the market as too tight at 70.3% vs model 65.6%.

What decides it
  • Sousa favoured at -278 despite UFC debut
  • Oki alternating W/L form (WLWL)
  • Oki 100% decision rate — goes long
  • Market may be overpricing Sousa
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Middleweight Bout -135 / +110
Brad Tavares
VS
Eryk Anders
52% 48%
TOSS-UP We predict Brad Tavares — 52% confident LOSS (Eryk Anders · DEC)
Brad Tavares model 52.2% — market tighter at 54.7%.
The breakdownTwo 38-year-old veterans in a crossroads fight. Tavares has the higher Elo (1560 vs 1518) and 87.5% decision rate — the ultimate point fighter. And…

Two 38-year-old veterans in a crossroads fight. Tavares has the higher Elo (1560 vs 1518) and 87.5% decision rate — the ultimate point fighter. Anders is a Southpaw with 55.6% KO rate but an even 9-9 record. Both coming off losses in alternating form.

What decides it
  • Tavares higher Elo (1560 vs 1518)
  • Both 38 years old, coming off losses
  • Tavares 87.5% decision rate
  • Anders Southpaw with 55.6% KO rate
  • TOSS-UP at 52.9%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Women's Bantamweight Bout +100 / +100
Bia Mesquita
VS
Montse Rendon
56% 44%
LOW We predict Bia Mesquita — 56% confident WIN
Bia Mesquita at —. Model 56.1% vs market 50.0% (+6.1pp).
The breakdownNear-identical Elos (1523 vs 1524) make this a true pick'em on paper. Mesquita won her debut by decision. Rendon is 2-1 with all decisions, giving…

Near-identical Elos (1523 vs 1524) make this a true pick'em on paper. Mesquita won her debut by decision. Rendon is 2-1 with all decisions, giving her more UFC experience. Both fighters rely on decisions (100% each) so expect a grinding 3 rounds.

What decides it
  • Nearly identical Elos (1523 vs 1524)
  • Both 100% decision rate — grinder fight
  • Mesquita 1-0 vs Rendon 2-1
  • LOW confidence at 55.6%
  • Decision overwhelmingly likely at 62.6%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Bantamweight Bout +100 / +100
Luan Lacerda
VS
Hecher Sosa
47% 53%
TOSS-UP We predict Hecher Sosa — 53% confident WIN
Hecher Sosa at —. Model 52.9% vs market 50.0% (+2.9pp).
The breakdownLacerda is 1-2 with a losing trend (form: LLW) and the lower Elo at 1477. Sosa debuts with the standard 1500 Elo and has a 2-inch height advantage.…

Lacerda is 1-2 with a losing trend (form: LLW) and the lower Elo at 1477. Sosa debuts with the standard 1500 Elo and has a 2-inch height advantage. The model slightly leans Sosa at 53.9% but this is a genuine TOSS-UP.

What decides it
  • Lacerda 1-2 in UFC, losing trend
  • Sosa UFC debut with 1500 baseline Elo
  • Sosa 2-inch height advantage
  • TOSS-UP at 53.9%
  • Decision 43.1% with live KO and SUB chances
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
Women's Strawweight Bout -149 / +125
Piera Rodriguez
VS
Sam Hughes
60% 40%
LOW We predict Piera Rodriguez — 60% confident WIN
Piera Rodriguez at -149. Model 59.6% vs market 57.4% (+2.2pp).
The breakdownNear-identical Elos (1545 vs 1547) between two 33-year-olds. Rodriguez is 100% decisions, Hughes 83.3% — this is going long. Rodriguez on a 2-fight…

Near-identical Elos (1545 vs 1547) between two 33-year-olds. Rodriguez is 100% decisions, Hughes 83.3% — this is going long. Rodriguez on a 2-fight win streak vs Hughes on a 3-fight win streak. Model leans Rodriguez at 60.0% with LOW confidence.

What decides it
  • Near-identical Elos (1545 vs 1547)
  • Both on win streaks (Rodriguez 2, Hughes 3)
  • Rodriguez 100% decision rate
  • Decision 72.0% overwhelmingly likely
  • LOW confidence at 60.0%
Written by the FightIQ desk for this card. Editorial, not model output.
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