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History · 2025 · UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan
From the tape · 6 Dec 2025

Terrance McKinney vs Chris Duncan

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Result

Chris Duncan beat Terrance McKinney

Method
Submission
Round
1 of 3
Clock
2:30
LightweightMain cardReferee · Marc Goddard

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

Red corner TerranceMcKinney“T. Wrecks”Warrior Camp · Spokane, Washington
VSOn the tape
Blue corner ChrisDuncan“The Problem”American Top Team · Alloa, East Ayrshire
Lightweight3 rounds6 Dec 2025
The story going in
  • Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Every one of McKinney’s 7 UFC wins came inside the distance.
  • Has finished 2 of 5 UFC wins.
18-9
Record
15-3
−1 yr31
Age
32
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
+2″73″
Reach
71″
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
+511
UFC bouts
6
+60%7/7100% of wins
Finishes
2/540% of wins
Warrior Camp
Gym
American Top Team
Spokane, Washington
From
Alloa, East Ayrshire
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

1 round of tape

Round 12:30 of action⚡ 1 KD Duncan1 sub attemptEnded 2:30
Terrance McKinney31 sig landed
HEAD84%26 of 50BODY16%5 of 7LEGS0%0 landed
Chris Duncan38 sig landed
HEAD95%36 of 51BODY5%2 of 3LEGS0%0 of 1
31 of 57
Sig.
strikes
38 of 55
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 2
0:00
Control
1:10
0
Knock-
downs
1
0
Sub
attempts
1
Distance 24Clinch 6Ground 1
Where it
happened
Distance 10Clinch 6Ground 22

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Chris Duncan

Round
1
Clock
2:30
Method
Submission

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Terrance McKinney

3.31takedowns / 15 min
3.31 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
2.92 / 15m
8.28 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
7.30 / 15m
40%
ACCURACY
40%
2.10 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.60 / 15m

Chris Duncan

2.92takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Lightweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Terrance McKinney↑ +5.9pp
open 42.0%close 47.9%
Chris Duncan↓ −5.9pp
open 58.0%close 52.1%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Terrance McKinney opened at 42.0% and closed at 47.9% (+5.9pp), with Chris Duncan moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Terrance McKinney130-10142.0%47.9%+5.9pp
Chris Duncan-150-12058.0%52.1%−5.9pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · dated 2025-12-07 on the odds record (1d from the card date; the nearest day inside a two-day window is used, never a guess) · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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