Round 1⚡ 1 KD BarbosaEnded 2:47
11 of 25
Sig.
strikes
strikes
5 of 21
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 5
0:12
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 10Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 0
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Marcio Barbosa
67.9% confidentHIGH
The fight
Marcio Barbosa
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Marcio Barbosa
Round
1
Clock
2:47
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jason Herzog.
Takedowns
Takedowns
Marcio Barbosa
The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.
FightIQ read
Rarely shoots
0.00 takedowns landed per 15 minutes — −2.36 on the field average.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS
0.00 / 15m−2.36 vs field
ATTEMPTS
Attempts per 15 needs both a landed rate and a completion rate; one of them is missing, so we do not divide.
n/a
ACCURACY
No takedown attempt on the record — UFCStats writes 0% here, which is not a completion rate.
n/a
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m−1.27 vs field
TD DEFENCE100
100%+37pp vs field
Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.73 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.
Ranked in Featherweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Marcio BarbosaRyan KusePolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Marcio Barbosa's implied chance moved up from 62% to 88% (+25.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Aug 22 22:24Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Marcio Barbosa at 67.9%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 87.5% — our number sat 19.6pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcio Barbosa — sportsbook consensus | 83.0% | 50.0% | 89.4% | 89.4% | +6.4pp |
| Ryan Kuse — sportsbook consensus | 17.0% | 10.6% | 50.0% | 10.6% | −6.4pp |
| Marcio Barbosa — Polymarket | 62.5% | 46.5% | 87.5% | 87.5% | +25.0pp |
| Ryan Kuse — Polymarket | 37.5% | 12.5% | 53.5% | 12.5% | −25.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 2,289 snapshots on file · window Aug 13 15:15–Aug 22 22:18Z · last capture Aug 22, 22:18Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.