Round 1
27 of 43
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 36
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 27Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 13Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has finished 3 of 4 UFC wins.
- Has finished 2 of 10 UFC wins.
- Is 9 points more accurate striking than Haqparast.
- 15 UFC bouts deep — 10 more than Padilla.
18-6-1
Record
18-7
−1 yr30
Age
31
5' 9"
Height
+1″5' 10"
+2″74″
Reach
72″
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5
UFC bouts
+1015
+55%3/475% of wins
Finishes
2/1020% of wins
California Mixed Martial Arts
Gym
Tristar Gym
Gardena, California
From
Rabat
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Chris Padilla
52.1% confidentTOSS-UP
The fight
Chris Padilla
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
46 of 83
Sig.
strikes
strikes
29 of 64
0 of 2
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:02
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 43Clinch 3Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 25Clinch 4Ground 0
Round 3⚡ 1 KD Padilla1 sub attemptEnded 4:59
52 of 101
Sig.
strikes
strikes
29 of 68
1 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 2
0:43
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 37Clinch 5Ground 10
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 20Clinch 9Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Chris Padilla
Round
3
Clock
4:59
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Frank Trigg.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Chris Padilla
1.13 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.34 / 15m
4.04 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
1.70 / 15m
28%
ACCURACY
20%
0.30 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
80%
TD DEFENCE
86%
Nasrat Haqparast
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Chris PadillaNasrat HaqparastPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Chris Padilla's implied chance drifted down from 76% to 52% (−25.0pp) over this window. Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Aug 22 22:33Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Chris Padilla at 52.1%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 51.5% — our number sat 0.6pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla — sportsbook consensus | 48.7% | 47.5% | 51.3% | 51.3% | +2.6pp |
| Nasrat Haqparast — sportsbook consensus | 51.3% | 48.7% | 52.5% | 48.7% | −2.6pp |
| Chris Padilla — Polymarket | 76.5% | 49.5% | 77.5% | 51.5% | −25.0pp |
| Nasrat Haqparast — Polymarket | 23.5% | 22.5% | 50.5% | 48.5% | +25.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,800 snapshots on file · window Aug 16 16:09–Aug 22 22:27Z · last capture Aug 22, 22:27Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.