Round 1⚡ 1 KD StevesonEnded 2:31
41 of 57
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 33
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:10
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 28Clinch 12Ground 1
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 9Clinch 4Ground 0
VSSettled
4-0
Record
5-3
−3 yr26
Age
29
La Bodega Fight Club
Gym
Combat Sport & Fitness
Portage, Indiana
From
Enumclaw, Washington
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Gable Steveson
63.6% confidentLOW
The fight
Gable Steveson
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Gable Steveson
Round
1
Clock
2:31
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Gable StevesonElisha EllisonPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Gable Steveson's implied chance moved up from 78% to 88% (+9.9pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
Our published call had Gable Steveson at 63.6%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 88.4% — our number sat 24.8pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gable Steveson — sportsbook consensus | 89.2% | 88.1% | 92.3% | 90.2% | +1.0pp |
| Elisha Ellison — sportsbook consensus | 10.8% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 9.8% | −1.0pp |
| Gable Steveson — Polymarket | 78.5% | 76.5% | 90.3% | 88.4% | +9.9pp |
| Elisha Ellison — Polymarket | 21.5% | 9.7% | 23.5% | 11.6% | −9.9pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 1,108 snapshots on file · window Jul 07 18:09–Jul 11 23:57Z · last capture Jul 11, 23:57Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.