Round 1
7 of 15
Sig.
strikes
strikes
5 of 20
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:25
Control
0:00
Distance 6Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 1Ground 0
We hold no public fighter-register entry for Jefferson Nascimento and Tahir Abdullayev yet, so there is no side-by-side to lay out here — an empty ladder would say less than saying that.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Tahir Abdullayev
69.3% confidentMED
The fight
Tahir Abdullayev
WIN✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
15 of 34
Sig.
strikes
strikes
6 of 24
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:00
Control
0:00
Distance 15Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 3Ended 4:28
13 of 23
Sig.
strikes
strikes
26 of 43
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
2 of 4
0:08
Control
3:12
Distance 12Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 3Ground 19
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Tahir Abdullayev
Round
3
Clock
4:28
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Jim Perdios.
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Jefferson NascimentoTahir AbdullayevPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Tahir Abdullayev's implied chance moved down from 58% to 46% (−12.4pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Jun 27 13:18Z — the point at which this bout’s own market began the move that ended in settlement. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Tahir Abdullayev at 69.3%. At the last price we captured before this bout’s market began to settle, the de-vigged market had him at 45.7% — our number sat 23.6pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Nascimento — sportsbook consensus | 41.9% | 40.8% | 56.1% | 54.3% | +12.4pp |
| Tahir Abdullayev — sportsbook consensus | 58.1% | 43.9% | 59.2% | 45.7% | −12.4pp |
Price history from BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 9 snapshots on file · window Jun 23 18:53–Jun 27 13:18Z · last capture Jun 27, 13:18Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.