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Events · Fiziev vs Torres · Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren
Red corner DaniilDonchenkoTiger Muay Thai · Kyiv
VSSettled
Blue corner TheodorBerggren
Welterweight3 rounds27 Jun 2026
We hold no public fighter-register entry for Theodor Berggren yet, so there is no side-by-side to lay out here — an empty ladder would say less than saying that.

The call vs the fight

What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.

Our call
Daniil Donchenko
67.8% confidentHIGH
Method calledKO/TKO 46%
Vs the market−17.8pp
Market had our pick at86%
The fight
Daniil Donchenko
WIN✓
How it endedKO/TKO
Round2 of 3
Clock1:35
Called it We called Daniil Donchenko at 67.8% and Daniil Donchenko won. The method call landed too.
Graded against the official UFC result, from the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads as one. See the full public record →

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.

UFCStats · per round

2 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Daniil Donchenko57 sig landed
HEAD16%9 of 28BODY44%25 of 30LEGS40%23 of 24
Theodor Berggren17 sig landed
HEAD71%12 of 37BODY24%4 of 9LEGS6%1 of 1
57 of 82
Sig.
strikes
17 of 47
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:20
Control
0:17
0
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 51Clinch 6Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 14Clinch 3Ground 0
Round 21:35 of action⚡ 2 KD DonchenkoEnded 1:35
Daniil Donchenko14 sig landed
HEAD50%7 of 16BODY7%1 of 2LEGS43%6 of 7
Theodor Berggren6 sig landed
HEAD50%3 of 13BODY50%3 of 4LEGS0%0 landed
14 of 25
Sig.
strikes
6 of 17
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 0
0:07
Control
0:00
2
Knock-
downs
0
Distance 10Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 6Clinch 0Ground 0

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

How it ended

This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.

Won inside the distance

Daniil Donchenko

Round
2
Clock
1:35
Method
KO/TKO

This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.

Takedowns

Takedowns

Daniil Donchenko

The level change — how often it lands, how often it is stopped. Career UFC rates, straight off the tape.

0.77takedowns / 15 min
FightIQ read Mixed grappling 0.77 takedowns and 0.00 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Career ratesvs field average
TAKEDOWNS20
0.77 / 15m−1.22 vs field
ATTEMPTS27
2.33 / 15m−2.61 vs field
ACCURACY34
33%−13pp vs field
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m−1.32 vs field

Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.97 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average.

Ranked in Welterweight

The market story

What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.

Daniil DonchenkoTheodor BerggrenPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren — implied win chance over timeLine chart. Market-implied win chance for Daniil Donchenko and Theodor Berggren from Jun 14 to Jun 27, drawn from Polymarket and the sportsbook consensus. Daniil Donchenko moves from 76% to 82% and Theodor Berggren from 24% to 18%. A gold marker sits at the first snapshot in this window — our pick was frozen before the window opened, not at that price.10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%Jun 14Jun 17Jun 21Jun 24Jun 27▲ we flagged Daniil Donchenko (HIGH) here82%18%

From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Daniil Donchenko's implied chance moved up from 76% to 82% (+6.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.

This series stops at Jun 27 14:12Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.

Our published call had Daniil Donchenko at 67.8%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 81.5% — our number sat 13.7pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.

Show the numbers
SeriesOpenLowHighLast pre-fightMove
Daniil Donchenko — sportsbook consensus79.7%76.0%81.8%81.7%+2.0pp
Theodor Berggren — sportsbook consensus20.3%18.2%24.0%18.3%−2.0pp
Daniil Donchenko — Polymarket75.5%66.5%81.5%81.5%+6.0pp
Theodor Berggren — Polymarket24.5%18.5%33.5%18.5%−6.0pp
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 427 snapshots on file · window Jun 14 18:24–Jun 27 14:09Z · last capture Jun 27, 14:09Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.
← Back to the public record