Round 1
8 of 17
Sig.
strikes
strikes
4 of 11
3 of 4
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
3:19
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 3
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 2Clinch 2Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
- Has finished 3 of 8 UFC wins.
- Has finished 2 of 6 UFC wins.
- 14 UFC bouts deep — 7 more than Almabayev.
24-3
Record
20-9
−3 yr32
Age
35
5' 4"
Height
+5″5' 9"
65″
Reach
+5″70″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
7
UFC bouts
+714
2/633% of wins
Finishes
+4%3/838% of wins
Almaty
From
St. Louis, Missouri
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Asu Almabayev
76.7% confidentMED
The fight
Asu Almabayev
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
14 of 27
Sig.
strikes
strikes
15 of 30
2 of 4
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
2:26
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 10Clinch 1Ground 3
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 14Clinch 1Ground 0
Round 32 sub attemptsEnded 3:33
6 of 7
Sig.
strikes
strikes
2 of 4
1 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
3:03
Control
0:00
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 3
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 2Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Asu Almabayev
Round
3
Clock
3:33
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Asu Almabayev
4.46 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.51 / 15m
10.62 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
3.19 / 15m
42%
ACCURACY
16%
1.50 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.30 / 15m
44%
TD DEFENCE
69%
Charles Johnson
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Flyweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Asu AlmabayevCharles JohnsonPolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Asu Almabayev's implied chance moved down from 76% to 74% (−2.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Jun 27 16:57Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Asu Almabayev at 76.7%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 73.5% — our number sat 3.2pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev — sportsbook consensus | 62.4% | 61.8% | 73.3% | 72.3% | +9.8pp |
| Charles Johnson — sportsbook consensus | 37.6% | 26.7% | 38.2% | 27.7% | −9.8pp |
| Asu Almabayev — Polymarket | 75.5% | 66.5% | 75.5% | 73.5% | −2.0pp |
| Charles Johnson — Polymarket | 24.5% | 24.5% | 33.5% | 26.5% | +2.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 452 snapshots on file · window Jun 14 18:24–Jun 27 16:54Z · last capture Jun 27, 16:54Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.