Round 1
29 of 58
Sig.
strikes
strikes
32 of 68
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 3
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 25Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 28Clinch 4Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Comes in on a 9-fight win streak.
- Comes in on a 2-fight win streak.
- Has finished 7 of 9 UFC wins.
- Has finished 6 of 10 UFC wins.
17-1
Record
28-5
−8 yr29
Age
37
5' 7"
Height
+4″5' 11"
69″
Reach
+1″70″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
9
UFC bouts
+615
+18%7/978% of wins
Finishes
6/1060% of wins
Topuria Team
Gym
Genesis Training Center
Rustavi, Kvemo Kartli
From
Safford, Arizona
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Ilia Topuria
77.4% confidentHIGH
The fight
Justin Gaethje
LOSS✓
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
4 rounds of tape
Round 2⚡ 1 KD Topuria
44 of 60
Sig.
strikes
strikes
12 of 35
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
2:02
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 29Clinch 10Ground 5
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 11Clinch 1Ground 0
Round 3
7 of 15
Sig.
strikes
strikes
22 of 36
0 of 1
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:05
Control
0:47
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 3Clinch 4Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 16Clinch 6Ground 0
Round 4Ended 5:00
17 of 29
Sig.
strikes
strikes
25 of 53
1 of 2
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:25
Control
0:45
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 11Clinch 4Ground 2
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 18Clinch 4Ground 3
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Justin Gaethje
Round
4
Clock
5:00
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Ilia Topuria
1.96 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
0.33 / 15m
3.21 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
0.82 / 15m
61%
ACCURACY
40%
1.10 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.00 / 15m
93%
TD DEFENCE
74%
Justin Gaethje
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.22 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Lightweight
The market story
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Ilia TopuriaJustin GaethjePolymarketSportsbook consensus (vig removed)
From the open the market drifted away from our pick: Ilia Topuria's implied chance moved down from 84% to 80% (−4.0pp).
Our published call had Ilia Topuria at 77.4%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 79.5% — our number sat 2.1pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria — sportsbook consensus | 83.3% | 79.4% | 84.2% | 79.8% | −3.5pp |
| Justin Gaethje — sportsbook consensus | 16.7% | 15.8% | 20.6% | 20.2% | +3.5pp |
| Ilia Topuria — Polymarket | 83.5% | 79.5% | 83.5% | 79.5% | −4.0pp |
| Justin Gaethje — Polymarket | 16.5% | 16.5% | 20.5% | 20.5% | +4.0pp |
Price history from Polymarket (moneyline, both corners) and BestFightOdds (sportsbook consensus, vig removed). 3,160 snapshots on file · window Jun 01 17:20–Jun 15 01:15Z · last capture Jun 15, 01:15Z · hourly-downsampled for the chart · read at build time from the price archive, not a live feed.