What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
1 round of tape
No significant strikes landed — 8 thrown
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Iwo Baraniewski
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Dan Miragliotta.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Iwo Baraniewski
Junior Tafa
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.96 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Iwo Baraniewski's implied chance drifted up from 73% to 80% (+6.5pp) over this window. Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at Jun 06 23:54Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Iwo Baraniewski at 50.0%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 79.5% — our number sat 29.5pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski — sportsbook consensus | 72.4% | 72.4% | 78.2% | 78.2% | +5.8pp |
| Junior Tafa — sportsbook consensus | 27.6% | 21.8% | 27.6% | 21.8% | −5.8pp |
| Iwo Baraniewski — Polymarket | 73.0% | 72.0% | 79.5% | 79.5% | +6.5pp |
| Junior Tafa — Polymarket | 27.0% | 20.5% | 28.0% | 20.5% | −6.5pp |