What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.
3 rounds of tape
No significant strikes landed
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.
Unanimous Decision
| Judge | Total |
|---|---|
| Luke Hill | 25–30 |
| David Lethaby2.1 avg spread · 44% wide | 27–30 |
| Clemens Werner2.1 avg spread · 50% wide | 27–30 |
Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.
Media cards — 5 scored, Carlston Harris first · unofficial
Fan vote · unofficial
24 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Carlston Harris
Jake Matthews
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.97 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
From the open the market drifted toward our pick: Jake Matthews's implied chance moved up from 28% to 82% (+54.0pp). Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
This series stops at May 30 10:57Z — the last capture we hold from before the bout that ran ahead of this one on the card had finished — so it is provably from before this fight started. Our capture window is card-level and kept running through the fight, so what follows it in the raw file is the market collapsing live and then paying out at 1.00 / 0.00. That is a settlement, not price history: it is not drawn, and it is not counted in the figures below.
Our published call had Jake Matthews at 74.3%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 82.5% — our number sat 8.2pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last pre-fight | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris — sportsbook consensus | 26.3% | 20.7% | 26.3% | 20.8% | −5.5pp |
| Jake Matthews — sportsbook consensus | 73.7% | 73.7% | 79.3% | 79.2% | +5.5pp |
| Carlston Harris — Polymarket | 71.5% | 17.5% | 71.5% | 17.5% | −54.0pp |
| Jake Matthews — Polymarket | 28.5% | 28.5% | 82.5% | 82.5% | +54.0pp |