What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.
5 rounds of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.
Unanimous Decision
| Judge | Total |
|---|---|
| Eric Colón2.0 avg spread · 43% wide | 50–45 |
| Sal D'Amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide | 49–46 |
| David Lethaby2.1 avg spread · 44% wide | 50–45 |
Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.
Media cards — 9 scored, Arnold Allen first · unofficial
Fan vote · unofficial
77 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.
Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Arnold Allen
Melquizael Costa
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.73 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
What the market did on the way to the cage — the price, not our model. The gold marker is where our pick was frozen.
Melquizael Costa's implied chance drifted down from 58% to 48% (−10.5pp) over this window. Our pick was frozen at the model cutoff, before this window opened — so the gold marker sits at the first snapshot we hold, not at a price we were reacting to.
Our published call had Melquizael Costa at 54.9%. At the last price we captured before the fight, the de-vigged market had him at 47.5% — our number sat 7.4pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
| Series | Open | Low | High | Last capture | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnold Allen — sportsbook consensus | 59.1% | 41.6% | 62.0% | 53.4% | −5.7pp |
| Melquizael Costa — sportsbook consensus | 40.9% | 38.0% | 58.4% | 46.6% | +5.7pp |
| Arnold Allen — Polymarket | 42.0% | 42.0% | 63.5% | 52.5% | +10.5pp |
| Melquizael Costa — Polymarket | 58.0% | 36.5% | 58.0% | 47.5% | −10.5pp |