Round 1
20 of 47
Sig.
strikes
strikes
17 of 63
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 4
0:15
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 17Clinch 2Ground 1
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 17Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Lands 5.0 more significant strikes a minute than Estevam.
- Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
- Averages 3.2 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Ewing.
10-2
Record
14-1
30
Age
−1 yr29
5' 6"
Height
+2″5' 8"
69″
Reach
69″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
1
UFC bouts
+23
0/10% of wins
Finishes
0/30% of wins
CSW Training Center
Gym
Nova Uniao
Anaheim Hills, California
From
Macapa, Amapa
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Ethyn Ewing
51.3% confidentTOSS-UP
The fight
Ethyn Ewing
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
3 rounds of tape
Round 2
67 of 109
Sig.
strikes
strikes
14 of 79
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 4
0:04
Control
0:00
0
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 64Clinch 3Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 14Clinch 0Ground 0
Round 3⚡ 1 KD EwingEnded 1:44
27 of 41
Sig.
strikes
strikes
13 of 43
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
0:03
Control
0:00
1
Knock-
downs
downs
0
Distance 26Clinch 0Ground 1
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 13Clinch 0Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Ethyn Ewing
Round
3
Clock
1:44
Method
KO/TKO
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Chris Tognoni.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Ethyn Ewing
1.68 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
4.91 / 15m
2.80 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
14.88 / 15m
60%
ACCURACY
33%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.20 / 15m
100%
TD DEFENCE
66%
Rafael Estevam
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked roster-wide
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Ethyn Ewing↑ +20.1pp
open 34.0%close 54.1%
Rafael Estevam↓ −20.1pp
open 66.0%close 45.9%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
Ethyn Ewing opened at 34.0% and closed at 54.1% (+20.1pp), with Rafael Estevam moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Our published call had Ethyn Ewing at 51.3%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had him at 54.1% — our number sat 2.8pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethyn Ewing | 185 | -132 | 34.0% | 54.1% | +20.1pp |
| Rafael Estevam | -215 | 107 | 66.0% | 45.9% | −20.1pp |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.