Round 11 sub attemptEnded 2:29
5 of 9
Sig.
strikes
strikes
3 of 5
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
1 of 2
0:00
Control
1:42
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
1
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 3Clinch 0Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has dropped 2 straight in the UFC.
- Carries 28 points more takedown defence than Silva.
- Is 33 points more accurate striking than Marshall.
9-4
Record
10-3
38
Age
−12 yr26
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
71″
Reach
+1″72″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
2
UFC bouts
+35
Antonio Silva Martial Arts
Gym
American Top Team
Caracas, Capital District
From
Jersey City, New Jersey
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Francis Marshall
75.3% confidentHIGH
The fight
Francis Marshall
WIN✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
1 round of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Francis Marshall
Round
1
Clock
2:29
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Fernando Salas Navarro.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Erik Silva
3.26 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
2.71 / 15m
4.07 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
5.77 / 15m
80%
ACCURACY
47%
0.00 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.50 / 15m
60%
TD DEFENCE
88%
Francis Marshall
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.73 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Featherweight
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Erik Silva↓ −7.8pp
open 21.4%close 13.6%
Francis Marshall↑ +7.8pp
open 78.6%close 86.4%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
Erik Silva opened at 21.4% and closed at 13.6% (−7.8pp), with Francis Marshall moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Our published call had Francis Marshall at 75.3%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had him at 86.4% — our number sat 11.1pp below the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Silva | 350 | 603 | 21.4% | 13.6% | −7.8pp |
| Francis Marshall | -450 | -964 | 78.6% | 86.4% | +7.8pp |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.