Round 1
3 of 9
Sig.
strikes
strikes
6 of 8
1 of 2
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 0
2:18
Control
1:39
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 1Clinch 0Ground 2
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 4Clinch 2Ground 0
VSSettled
The story going in
- Has finished 4 of 10 UFC wins.
- Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
- 13 UFC bouts deep — 9 more than Oliveira.
- Carries 15 points more takedown defence than Bautista.
18-3
Record
24-4
32
Age
−2 yr30
5' 9"
Height
5' 9"
69″
Reach
+1″70″
Switch
Stance
Switch
+913
UFC bouts
4
+15%4/1040% of wins
Finishes
1/425% of wins
MMA Lab
Gym
Sombra Team
Phoenix, Arizona
From
Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.
The call vs the fight
What we published before the card, next to what happened in the cage.
Our call
Vinicius Oliveira
53.8% confidentTOSS-UP
The fight
Mario Bautista
LOSS✗
Graded against the official UFC result, from
the same record every other page on this site is graded from. The tick beside the verdict
is the method call — a correct winner with a wrong method is a partial hit and reads
as one. See the full public record →
Round by round
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
UFCStats · per round
2 rounds of tape
Round 21 sub attemptEnded 4:46
12 of 18
Sig.
strikes
strikes
6 of 13
4 of 5
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
3:29
Control
0:00
1
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 7
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 5Clinch 1Ground 0
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
How it ended
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Won inside the distance
Mario Bautista
Round
2
Clock
4:46
Method
SUB
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Herb Dean.
Takedowns
Takedowns
The level change — head to head
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Mario Bautista
1.91 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
1.45 / 15m
5.03 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
3.15 / 15m
38%
ACCURACY
46%
0.80 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.20 / 15m
55%
TD DEFENCE
70%
Vinicius Oliveira
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.45 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Ranked in Bantamweight
The market story
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Mario Bautista↓ −1.1pp
open 56.2%close 55.1%
Vinicius Oliveira↑ +1.1pp
open 43.8%close 44.9%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)
Mario Bautista opened at 56.2% and closed at 55.1% (−1.1pp), with Vinicius Oliveira moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
Our published call had Vinicius Oliveira at 53.8%. At the closing consensus, the de-vigged market had him at 44.9% — our number sat 8.9pp above the market’s. Two numbers, side by side. How our calls have actually done is the public record, not one bout.
Show the numbers
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | -140 | -137 | 56.2% | 55.1% | −1.1pp |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 120 | 112 | 43.8% | 44.9% | +1.1pp |
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · dated 2026-02-08 on the odds record (1d from the card date; the nearest day inside a two-day window is used, never a guess) · scraped 2026-08-02. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.