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History · 2025 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez
From the tape · 18 Jan 2025

Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Inglewood, California, USA
Result

Ailin Perez beat Karol Rosa

Method
Decision - Unanimous
Round
3 of 3
Clock
5:00
Women's BantamweightMain cardReferee · Mike Beltran

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

Red corner KarolRosaGAEA Project · Vila Velha, Espirito Santo
VSOn the tape
Blue corner AilinPerez“Fiona”The Goat Shed Academy · Hurlingham, Buenos Aires
Women's Bantamweight3 rounds18 Jan 2025
The story going in
  • 10 UFC bouts deep — 5 more than Perez.
  • Comes in on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Lands 3.0 more significant strikes a minute than Perez.
  • Averages 3.7 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Rosa.
19-8
Record
13-2
30
Age
30
5' 5"
Height
5' 5"
+1″67″
Reach
66″
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
+510
UFC bouts
5
0/70% of wins
Finishes
+25%1/425% of wins
GAEA Project
Gym
The Goat Shed Academy
Vila Velha, Espirito Santo
From
Hurlingham, Buenos Aires
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Karol Rosa18 sig landed
HEAD44%8 of 14BODY6%1 of 2LEGS50%9 of 9
Ailin Perez13 sig landed
HEAD77%10 of 18BODY8%1 of 1LEGS15%2 of 4
18 of 25
Sig.
strikes
13 of 23
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 4
0:00
Control
2:08
Distance 16Clinch 0Ground 2
Where it
happened
Distance 9Clinch 2Ground 2
Judges · this round · Rosa firstChris Crail9–10Sal D'Amato9–10Jonathan Romero9–10
Round 25:00 of action
Karol Rosa11 sig landed
HEAD55%6 of 24BODY0%0 of 1LEGS45%5 of 8
Ailin Perez16 sig landed
HEAD31%5 of 25BODY38%6 of 10LEGS31%5 of 6
11 of 33
Sig.
strikes
16 of 41
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 3
0:00
Control
1:50
Distance 10Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 14Clinch 0Ground 2
Judges · this round · Rosa firstChris Crail9–10Sal D'Amato9–10Jonathan Romero9–10
Round 35:00 of actionEnded 5:00
Karol Rosa24 sig landed
HEAD25%6 of 29BODY21%5 of 8LEGS54%13 of 17
Ailin Perez33 sig landed
HEAD39%13 of 44BODY12%4 of 6LEGS48%16 of 17
24 of 54
Sig.
strikes
33 of 67
0 of 0
Take-
downs
0 of 1
0:00
Control
0:17
Distance 23Clinch 1Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 33Clinch 0Ground 0
Judges · this round · Rosa firstChris Crail9–10Sal D'Amato10–9Jonathan Romero10–9

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

The cards, totalled

The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.

Official card

Unanimous Decision

Referee · Mike Beltran
Karol RosaAilin Perez
Official totals — Karol Rosa first
JudgeTotal
Chris Crail27–30
Sal D'Amato2.1 avg spread · 46% wide28–29
Jonathan Romero28–29

Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.

Media cards — 11 scored, Karol Rosa first · unofficial

Jay Pettry Sherdog.com28–29
Scottie Smith Sherdog.com28–29
Tyler Treese Sherdog.com28–29
Danny Segura MMAJunkie.com28–29
Jake Noecker Home of Fight28–29
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com28–29
Drake Riggs Uncrowned28–29
Steve Duncan mma.uno28–29
Dayne Fox Sherdog.com29–28
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com29–28
Zane Simon The MMA Vivisection29–28

Fan vote · unofficial

29-28 Perez · 54%29-28 Rosa · 26%30-27 Perez · 12%30-27 Rosa · 6%30-28 Perez · 2%

65 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Karol Rosa

1.17takedowns / 15 min
1.17 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
4.90 / 15m
2.44 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
10.00 / 15m
48%
ACCURACY
49%
0.20 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.20 / 15m

Ailin Perez

4.90takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.00 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Women's Bantamweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Karol Rosa↑ +8.9pp
open 60.4%close 69.2%
Ailin Perez↓ −8.9pp
open 39.6%close 30.8%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Karol Rosa opened at 60.4% and closed at 69.2% (+8.9pp), with Ailin Perez moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Karol Rosa-170-25960.4%69.2%+8.9pp
Ailin Perez14221239.6%30.8%−8.9pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · dated 2025-01-19 on the odds record (1d from the card date; the nearest day inside a two-day window is used, never a guess) · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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