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History · 2024 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Marina Rodriguez vs Iasmin Lucindo
From the tape · 5 Oct 2024

Marina Rodriguez vs Iasmin Lucindo

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Result

Iasmin Lucindo beat Marina Rodriguez

Method
Decision - Split
Round
3 of 3
Clock
5:00
Women's StrawweightMain cardReferee · Marc Goddard

We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.

Red corner MarinaRodriguezThai Brasil · Bage, Rio Grande do Sul
VSOn the tape
Blue corner IasminLucindoFight House · Fortaleza, Ceara
Women's Strawweight3 rounds5 Oct 2024
The story going in
  • Has finished 2 of 7 UFC wins.
  • Comes in on a 3-fight win streak.
  • 13 UFC bouts deep — 9 more than Lucindo.
  • Averages 2.0 more takedowns per 15 minutes than Rodriguez.
17-6-2
Record
18-6
37
Age
−15 yr22
+3″5' 6"
Height
5' 3"
65″
Reach
+1″66″
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
+913
UFC bouts
4
2/729% of wins
Finishes
+5%1/333% of wins
Thai Brasil
Gym
Fight House
Bage, Rio Grande do Sul
From
Fortaleza, Ceara
Vitals, record, nickname and camp come from the public UFC fighter register and are current, not a snapshot of fight night. UFC bouts, finish rate and every storyline line are counted off the official UFC fight record. A tick marks the side holding the raw edge in that row — longer reach, taller, younger, more bouts, a higher finish rate. It is a fact about the tape, not a prediction, and rows with no clean comparison (record, stance, gym, hometown) carry no tick at all. Any row we cannot fill on both sides is left out rather than half-drawn. Streaks, bout counts and finish rates are as they stood going into this fight — this bout and everything after it is excluded from the count.

Round by round

Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them, and how the three judges scored that round.

UFCStats · per round

3 rounds of tape

Round 15:00 of action
Marina Rodriguez5 sig landed
HEAD80%4 of 21BODY20%1 of 2LEGS0%0 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo11 sig landed
HEAD36%4 of 21BODY45%5 of 8LEGS18%2 of 4
5 of 25
Sig.
strikes
11 of 33
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 1
0:02
Control
1:06
Distance 5Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 10Clinch 1Ground 0
Judges · this round · Rodriguez firstMichael Bell9–10Steve Faragher10–9Dan Furse10–9
Round 25:00 of action
Marina Rodriguez16 sig landed
HEAD81%13 of 33BODY19%3 of 3LEGS0%0 of 1
Iasmin Lucindo10 sig landed
HEAD60%6 of 20BODY40%4 of 4LEGS0%0 landed
16 of 37
Sig.
strikes
10 of 24
0 of 0
Take-
downs
1 of 1
0:04
Control
2:08
Distance 14Clinch 2Ground 0
Where it
happened
Distance 10Clinch 0Ground 0
Judges · this round · Rodriguez firstMichael Bell9–10Steve Faragher9–10Dan Furse9–10
Round 35:00 of actionEnded 5:00
Marina Rodriguez12 sig landed
HEAD92%11 of 35BODY8%1 of 2LEGS0%0 landed
Iasmin Lucindo9 sig landed
HEAD100%9 of 15BODY0%0 of 1LEGS0%0 landed
12 of 37
Sig.
strikes
9 of 16
1 of 1
Take-
downs
1 of 2
0:05
Control
1:26
Distance 9Clinch 1Ground 2
Where it
happened
Distance 7Clinch 0Ground 2
Judges · this round · Rodriguez firstMichael Bell10–9Steve Faragher10–9Dan Furse9–10

Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.

The cards, totalled

The judges’ final totals, the media’s cards beside them, and how these judges usually score. Their round-by-round 10–9s are with the rounds above.

Official card

Split Decision

Referee · Marc Goddard
Marina RodriguezIasmin Lucindo
Official totals — Marina Rodriguez first
JudgeTotal
Michael Bell28–29
Steve Faragher29–28
Dan Furse28–29

Each judge’s round-by-round scores sit with the round they belong to, in the round-by-round section above — switch a round there and the three cards for it change with the stats.

Media cards — 13 scored, Marina Rodriguez first · unofficial

Jake Noecker Cageside Press28–29
Keith Shillan Sherdog.com28–29
Danny Segura MMAJunkie.com28–29
Steve Duncan mma.uno28–29
Zane Simon The MMA Vivisection28–29
Jay Pettry Sherdog.com29–28
Mike Fridley Sherdog.com29–28
Tyler Treese Sherdog.com29–28
Ryan Frederick WrestlingObserver.com29–28
Dayne Fox Sherdog.com29–28
Val Dewar Cageside Press29–28
Combat Press.com29–28
Drake Riggs Uncrowned29–28

Fan vote · unofficial

29-28 Rodriguez · 68%29-28 Lucindo · 24%30-27 Lucindo · 3%30-27 Rodriguez · 2%

98 fan cards submitted to MMA Decisions.

Official cards come from the UFCStats fight record and MMA Decisions. Media cards and the fan vote are MMA Decisions’ own collection and are not official. Judge tendency figures are that judge’s whole recorded history, not this bout — they are context for how a card was scored, never a claim that it was scored wrongly.

Takedowns

Takedowns

The level change — head to head

Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.

Marina Rodriguez

0.27takedowns / 15 min
0.27 / 15m
TAKEDOWNS
2.28 / 15m
0.54 / 15m
ATTEMPTS
4.15 / 15m
50%
ACCURACY
55%
0.30 / 15m
SUB ATT
0.10 / 15m

Iasmin Lucindo

2.28takedowns / 15 min

Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (4.04 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.

Ranked in Women's Strawweight

The market story

Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.

Marina Rodriguez↓ −11.1pp
open 49.0%close 37.9%
Iasmin Lucindo↑ +11.1pp
open 51.0%close 62.1%
0%50%100%
OpenClosing consensus (BFO, vig removed)

Marina Rodriguez opened at 49.0% and closed at 37.9% (−11.1pp), with Iasmin Lucindo moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.

Show the numbers
CornerOpen (US)Close (US)Open %Close %Move
Marina Rodriguez-11015249.0%37.9%−11.1pp
Iasmin Lucindo-120-18751.0%62.1%+11.1pp
Opening and closing moneylines from BestFightOdds (data/refs/bfo_fighter_moneylines.csv), one row per fighter per bout, de-vigged pairwise so the two corners sum to 100% · dated 2024-10-06 on the odds record (1d from the card date; the nearest day inside a two-day window is used, never a guess) · scraped 2026-06-10. No price series was captured for this bout, so no line is drawn between the two points.
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