Round 1
22 of 51
Sig.
strikes
strikes
19 of 45
0 of 0
Take-
downs
downs
0 of 1
0:00
Control
0:00
0
Sub
attempts
attempts
0
Distance 22Clinch 0Ground 0
Where it
happened
happened
Distance 19Clinch 0Ground 0
Nate Diaz beat Tony Ferguson
We published no prediction for this bout. Everything on this page is the official record and the tape it was fought on — the result, the round-by-round counts, the judges’ cards where they exist and the sportsbook line where one was published. Our graded calls start in 2026 and live on the public record.
Every round the fight went, shaded by where the significant strikes actually landed — and the takedowns, control time and knockdowns beside them.
4 rounds of tape
Significant strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns and submission attempts exactly as UFCStats recorded them for this bout, round by round. Zone percentages are that round’s landed head, body and leg counts over their own total — raw arithmetic, nothing modelled or smoothed. A round in which a fighter landed nothing shades empty and reads zero; it is never filled in from the round before.
This bout never reached the judges. Here is the finish, as the official record has it.
Nate Diaz
This bout did not reach the judges, so there are no official cards for it. The round-by-round tape above is the whole record of what happened. Referee: Marc Goddard.
Career UFC takedown rates. Red corner left, blue corner right.
Nate Diaz
Tony Ferguson
Career UFC takedown rates exactly as UFCStats publishes them: takedowns landed per 15 minutes, completion rate, submission attempts per 15 minutes, and the share of takedowns tried on them that they stuffed. Attempts per 15 is the one derived figure — landed ÷ completion rate — and it is omitted wherever either input is missing. UFCStats writes 0% where no attempt was recorded at all, so a percentage of exactly zero reads “n/a” here rather than as a measured rate. “Field” is the average fighter in that weight class, or across every division where a class is too small to average. Rate bars run to the population’s 95th percentile (5.32 takedowns / 15m); a fighter above it pins the bar. Percentages are drawn on their own axis.
Where the price started and where it finished — the sportsbook consensus, with the vig removed. We captured no price series for this bout, so there is no chart to draw.
Nate Diaz opened at 58.8% and closed at 42.7% (−16.1pp), with Tony Ferguson moving the other way by the same amount — the two are one de-vigged pair, so they always sum to 100%. There is no line between those two points because nobody recorded one: we hold the open and the close for this bout, not the days in between.
| Corner | Open (US) | Close (US) | Open % | Close % | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | -155 | 124 | 58.8% | 42.7% | −16.1pp |
| Tony Ferguson | 135 | -149 | 41.2% | 57.3% | +16.1pp |